FX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD/CHF
over the subsequent five months. NOTE: EUR/CHF, the secondary but important directional indicator to USD/CHF, has failed to penetrate 1.1050 weak long- term resistance. We continue to forecast a decline to retest 1.0235 into October 2016 [a 6% decline] which underscores the waning strength evident in USD/CHF. In the big picture, this is also a strong indication of the waning long-term bull market in the Dollar that we believe culminates into yearend 2016.
GOLD
Most investors are very familiar with the correlations of assets with Gold. The inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is a hinge pin for these correlations, reflected in our long-term bearish outlook
20 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2016
for Gold since May 2012. During the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold, the momentum waned in neutral/bearish, and resulted in the forecast medium- term corrective rally to 1155 weak long-term resistance for February 2016. The further corrective rally toward 1311
very strong medium-term resistance eroded the improved medium-term techs back to neutral/bearish. We continue to forecast a subsequent decline, now to retest only 1044, up from 891, through August 2016, to complete the long-term decline. We are forecasting a medium-term consolidation to occur over the subsequent six months [1044 – 1311] into Januar y 2017. This consolidation is the formation of a long-term bottom for Gold, reinforced
by the expected divergences from the further rally in the Dol lar into October 2016. Only a monthly close now back above 1311 would terminate a retest of 1044, and commence a ral ly to retest 1425 very strong long-term resistance over subsequent two months.
the
GOLD
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