FX TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
dollar outlook than the previous 5 years. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD above 1.1715 would dampen the bearish long-term technical aspects of the market, and result in a strong retest of 1.2230 in a higher, choppy outlook [1.0880 - 1.2230] over the subsequent six months.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD had been in a massive wedge
formation for 30 years, EUR/USD
EUR/USD As stated in the previous
three
articles in FX Trader Magazine, and which continues to be our mantra, we have stressed our very long standing view of the bearish seven-year cycle for the EUR/ USD. Our long-term forecast has continued to stress a top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast the subsequent decline to 1.1555 for March 2014. The decline to only 1.0460 [ shy of the .9890 ongoing long-term objective of the last three years], and retest of 1.1715 dampened bearish long- term momentum for the EUR/ USD, but did not terminate the forecast decline. The EUR/ USD graphic is the same graphic from January, and shows the completion of the forecast correction for January 2016. We
18 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2016
are in a prolonged development of the medium-term corrective top in the Euro, and continue to forecast a resumption of the decline still to .9890 through May 2016. We continue as well to forecast a further decline to .9330 strong long-term support into October 2016 in an even stronger
tightening relatively to [1.4395 – 2.0145]. The shallower than forecast corrective rally for
January 2016 left the medium- term technical and momentum persistently bearish and resulted in the forecast decline to 1.4270 for February 2016. The very premature further decline shy of the 1.3655 long-term objective for October 2016 has produced
GBP/USD
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