FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
groups canvassing for a UK exit from the EU. Though they have different agendas they share some common beliefs. One of which is that the EU hampers the UK economy through a combination of excessive rule making and the billions of pounds a year in membership fees that are levied on the UK,
from
which out c amp a i g ne r s p er c ei v e little or no return. The out campaign would also like to see Britain regain control of its borders, so as to be able to reduce the number of people coming into the UK to work.
They also
object to the prospect of an ever closer f ed e r a l i s ed Europe, modelled on the United States,
within which UK
sovereignty would be sacrificed. The out campaign believes that Britain can trade profitably from outside of the EU and that the rest of the world’s markets and trade can more than compensate for not being part of the single European market. It’s interesting to note that the in or out question cuts across party lines and the whole political spectrum,
It seems likely that sterling will be sensitive to the success of the out campaign
UK voters to make up their minds as to how they will vote when asked.
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
This choice of words is the
recommendation of the UK Electoral Commission, who proposed this wording to modify an earlier version of the question,
making for some interesting and unlikely bedfellows
When is the referendum? And what is the question?
The referendum will be held on 23 June 2016, leaving three months for
FX
which was thought to favour the in campaign. It’s possible that we could see further amendments or redrafting of the question before the vote in late June.
What want?
do the Markets
The markets and businesses
are
as much divided on this issue as anyone else, with various
parties
coming down on either side of the arguments. But whichever side of the debate they find themselves on market pa r t i c i pa n t s want to see two things:
stability
and certainty. However these commodities are likely to be in very short supply in the run up to the vote.
The UK public is broadly divided down the middle, when we look at those who already have a strong feeling on the issue. The key demographic will be those that ‘don’t know’ - a group which equates to some 10% or more of the populous.
However the variables extend well beyond the simple in out question,
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2016 65
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