JANUARY 2012
What’s In Store Real Estate
by Thomas Harding For the past seven years, I
have contacted local real estate specialists to ask them for their views on the upcoming mar- ket. Here is this year’s range of opinions: Jackie Lewis, Broker, Green-
tree Real Estate: “I don’t have a clue about what will happen next year. We did better than last year and hope that keeps going on. It will depend on the Presidential election next year as well as the economy. Ap- praisals are definitely an issue, with ratified contracts falling through because we can’t get them appraised. Residential home prices have fallen to those in 2002 in terms of prices.” Dave Pill, attorney, Pill
and Pill: “Next year will be the same as last year, perhaps slightly better. Real estate val- ues are starting to reach a point where there is a bargain to be had, which is why the market is starting to feel a little bet- ter. Raw land will begin to sell as it is now priced very low. If the money people return to the sidelines we will see another drop. The number of foreclo- sures and short sales will be about the same as 2011, and will not dry up in 2012. It seems de- pressing because we have seen it before. It’s like when you flunk a class and retake it and fail it again, and then retake and fail again, after a while the optimism goes out. Andrew Skinner, attorney,
Skinner Law Firm: “Next year we will see more of the same. There will be lots more foreclo- sures. There is still a lot of over- hang that has to be worked out before the market goes back to normal. It will be a long while before people start buying and selling because they can afford it rather than because they have to. I don’t expect 2012 will be different than 2011.” Carlos Niederhauser, real
estate entrepreneur: “It’s going to be okay. In the residential rental market, vacancies will
remain low and prices
will remain steady. Commercial rents will stay strong, particu- larly in Charles Town which is supported by the casino. I don’t think house prices will go up next year; there is still too much inventory on the market. I am seeing multiple bids at the low end of the market. It is pos- sible to get a deal, even possible to purchase a three bedroom, two bathroom home for only $10,000 in Martinsburg.” Chrissy Smith, owner, JC
Smith Construction: “I be- lieve that new homes will re- main slow next year. 2011 was a bit better than 2010. I don’t see any changes in 2012. Land prices will not go down in 2012. I think that the confidence is coming back. Chip Hensell, realtor, Hen-
sell Realty: “I think things feel better, but are they really? I don’t know. I think prices will come up a bit in 2012. Next year either we will inch up a little bit, or inch back, there will be no drastic changes. Everyone is having problem with apprais- ers; it’s a tough business. Land is stagnant. Banks will hang up on you if you ask for a lot de- velopment loan. We are back at the year 2000 for prices. What goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up, but hopefully not so drastically this time.” Peter Corum, lender, Frank-
lin American: “All the national projections are for the mort- gage market to shrink next year, but this should be offset by the federal Home Afford- able Refinance Program (HARP) program. We think the volume of loans in 2012 will be the same as 2011. Prices have sta- bilized, and we’re starting to see 1-5 percent appreciation in residential house prices in Jef- ferson County. We are seeing multiple bid offers in desirable locations. Appraisals continue to be a problem with a 10-15 percent difference in the cost-
to-build compared to the mar- ket valuation. We are back at 2002 prices. I call 2001-2011 the lost decade.” Chris Colbert, VP commer-
cial loans, United Bank: “I am the annual optimist. I hope for improvement. I see foreclo- sures starting to dry up a little bit and short sales catching up with itself. The commercial side of things will continue to be ac- tive, especially in the Charles Town area. The volume of loans in 2012 will stay around the same as 2011, though it will stay on the lower end, not what we were used to when times were good. The fact that Macy’s is coming into the area, along with other larger companies looking around, should spur the residential housing market somewhat. It is still possible to get construction financing, but the problem is that foreclo- sures are much cheaper than the cost of building a house, es- pecially given the high price of impact fees in Jefferson County. There are some great deals for buyers, if you are willing to put the time in. We have turned the corner, I believe.” Sam Harding, daughter of
Broker: “I don’t have as much experience with real estate as most other people you have interviewed, but I know that there have been tough times, but that this is now behind us. I compare real estate to a wave. We go all the way up, and when we are at the top the houses are at a good price. Then we go down really slowly and we hit the bottom until we hit a flat area. Then the next wave picks up and we are lifted up out of the flat calm area. I think in a couple of years we will go up; the next wave will arrive some- time in 2012. Thomas Harding is the owner/
Broker at Greg Didden Associates, and is a licensed realtor in WVa. You can contact him at Thomas@
GregDidden.com
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