TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – USD / THB and 32.685-32.888
USD/THB retraced just over 23.6% of the 55.750- 29.325 multi-year decline to reach a 36.280 recovery high in March 2009, reversing from just under the falling 260 week (5 year) moving average. A near full retracement of the 29.325-36.280 recovery phase followed, reaching 29.495 in November 2010, ahead of the latest choppy consolidation phase. Recovery attempts have so far stalled around the 31.200-31.425 area, but a golden cross of the 13 & 52 week moving averages combined with MACD pushing into positive territory has raised the possibility of a further medium- term recovery phase, with 32.082-32.087 (former support / 38.2% retracement) the next significant upside target, with an eventual clearance of that area
( June 2010
FX lower high/50%
retracement) pointing to a more significant retracement of the decline from 36.280. However, there are two long-term downtrends and the falling 260 week (5 year) to content with (currently) around the 31.363-32.395 area and while they remain intact the recent recovery phase is classed as corrective. Failure to clear 31.363- 31.425 & 32.082-32.087 ahead of a reversal under 30.475 will be an early warning of a return to weakness, with an eventual loss of 29.495-29.671 & 29.325-29.385 confirming a period of fresh weakness, targeted towards a minimum of 27-28 and possibly 22-23.
Steve Jarvis
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 09 December USD/IDR USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level 9050
1.2980 3.1550 30.950 1.0370 1.3175 1.3160 1.7350
Major trend Flat
Down Flat Flat Up
Sideways Down Down
Major target 1.1966 & 1.1327
Trend change level 8800 / 9390 1.3254
1.1316 & 1.2000
1.1500 & 1.0550 1.5000 & 1.4308
3.0469 / 3.2168 29.495 / 32.685 .9917
1.2105 / 1.3515 1.4331 1.8702
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2012 85
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