MONETARY POLICies Italy, Spain, Belgium and France Government Redemption and Coupon Flows to the End of 2014 (€bn)


FX


FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2012 37


Italy


31 Jan 12 29 Feb 12 31 Mar 12 30 Apr 12 31 May 12 30 Jun 12 31 Jul 12 31 Aug 12 30 Sep 12 31 Oct 12 30 Nov 12 31 Dec 12 31 Jan 13 28 Feb 13 31 Mar 13 30 Apr 13 31 May 13 30 Jun 13 31 Jul 13 31 Aug 13 30 Sep 13 31 Oct 13 30 Nov 13 31 Dec 13 31 Jan 14 28 Feb 14 31 Mar 14 30 Apr 14 31 May 14 30 Jun 14 31 Jul 14 31 Aug 14 30 Sep 14 31 Oct 14 30 Nov 14 31 Dec 14


Totals 2012 2013 2014


2012 -2014


Totals as a Percentage of GDP 2012 2013 2014


2012 -2014


Bills 15.2 16.7 17.1 16.8 14.6 6.1 7.4 7.2 8.3 7.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


121.3 0.0 0.0


121.3


7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7%


Bonds 0.4


36.4 27.1 27.8 0.6 4.5


17.1 11.5 10.7 20.3 13.5 30.5 0.0


21.0 0.0


29.1 0.0


18.7 14.3 24.7 10.1 0.0


18.1 20.0 0.0 0.0


13.4 15.3 0.0


19.4 14.1 27.2 14.5 0.0 3.6


14.4


200.3 156.0 122.0 478.2


12.8% 10.0% 7.8%


30.5% Coupons


1.0 9.9 7.3 2.3 4.2 2.6 1.5 9.3 6.9 1.9 4.2 2.5 0.8 9.2 6.8 1.6 3.9 2.3 1.3 8.8 6.7 1.2 3.9 2.1 0.6 8.2 6.8 1.2 3.7 1.7 1.2 8.3 6.6 0.9 3.7 1.4


53.6 48.7 44.3


146.6


3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 9.4%


Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LLP. Note: Months where total cas


Total 16.6 63.0 51.5 46.8 19.4 13.2 26.0 28.0 25.8 29.2 22.7 33.0 0.8


30.2 6.8


30.7 3.9


21.0 15.6 33.5 16.8 1.2


22.1 22.1 0.6 8.2


20.2 16.5 3.7


21.1 15.3 35.6 21.1 0.9 7.3


15.8


375.1 204.7 166.3 746.1


23.9% 13.1% 10.6% 47.6%


Bills 8.6


12.9 5.8 9.6 5.6 5.8 4.1 7.4 3.9 6.1 2.6 2.2 0.0 2.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


74.6 4.2 0.0


78.8


6.9% 0.4% 0.0% 7.3%


Spain Bonds


0.0 1.3 0.8


12.5 0.0 0.0


13.2 0.0 3.9


20.3 0.0 0.0


14.3 0.0 0.0


14.9 0.0 1.5


14.9 0.0 0.0


16.2 0.0 0.0


14.2 0.0 0.0


12.7 0.0 0.0


15.1 0.0 0.0


17.1 0.0 0.0


52.0 61.9 59.2


173.0


4.8% 5.7% 5.5%


16.1% Coupons


6.0 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.1 7.2 0.0 0.1 3.3 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.1 6.5 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0


20.7 18.8 16.5 56.0


1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 5.2%


Total 14.6 14.3 6.6


26.0 5.6 5.8


24.5 7.4 7.9


29.7 2.6 2.2


20.3 2.6 0.0


20.0 0.0 1.6


21.5 0.0 0.0


18.9 0.0 0.0


19.4 0.0 0.0


15.8 0.0 0.0


21.0 0.0 0.0


19.4 0.0 0.0


147.3 84.9 75.6


307.9


13.7% 7.9% 7.0%


28.6% h flows exceed more than 2% of nominal GDP are in bold. GDP is for the most recent 4 quarters. Bills


7.4 7.2 4.2 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


32.3 0.0 0.0


32.3


8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9%


Belgium Bonds


0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5


12.9 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0


12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


17.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2


13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1


27.9 30.3 27.2 85.5


7.7% 8.3% 7.5%


23.5% Coupons


0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


11.9 10.5 9.2


31.6


3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 8.7%


Total 7.4 7.2


16.0 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.1 3.2


18.4 1.3 0.9 8.6 0.0 0.0


19.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0


21.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3


18.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0


16.9 0.0 0.0 0.1


72.1 40.8 36.5


149.4


19.8% 11.2% 10.0% 41.1%


Bills 34.7 36.2 21.9 14.7 18.9 5.8 5.3 5.1 7.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


154.3 0.0 0.0


154.3


7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8%


France


Bonds 14.8 0.0 0.0


19.6 0.0 0.0


29.3 0.0


14.3 20.1 0.0 5.5


24.7 0.0 0.0


23.6 0.0 0.0


39.2 0.0


14.5 24.3 0.0 0.0


29.2 0.0 0.0


23.0 0.0 0.0


25.2 0.0 0.0


19.7 0.0 0.0


103.6 126.2 97.1


326.9


5.2% 6.4% 4.9%


16.5% Coupons


2.7 0.5 0.0


15.8 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.4


14.6 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.5 0.0


14.8 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.3


13.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.0


13.9 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0


12.7 0.0 0.0


40.8 36.6 32.0


109.4


2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 5.5%


Total 52.2 36.6 21.9 50.2 18.9 5.8


41.0 5.1


21.7 39.3 0.0 6.0


26.8 0.5 0.0


38.4 0.0 0.0


44.4 0.0


14.8 37.9 0.0 0.0


30.4 0.5 0.0


36.9 0.0 0.0


29.0 0.0 0.0


32.3 0.0 0.0


298.7 162.8 129.1 590.6


15.1% 8.2% 6.5%


29.8%


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