FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/HUF.
EUR/HUF underwent a strong advance from a new all-time traded low at 228.11 in July 2008 (versus 234.06 in January 2003), reaching new all-time highs at 286.28 & 317.08 in October 2008 & March 2009 (versus 284.96 in June 2006), interrupted by a dip which leſt a higher low at 252.85. A steady retreat occurred from 317.08, reaching 260.96 in March 2010, just over the 61.8% retracement of the previous 228.11-317.08 advance, before retracing just over 50% of the fall to reach 291.97 in July 2010. Attempts to resume the decline occurred from there but the 2010 low at 260.96 held firm, with a base being formed around the 263.12 / 261.93 area in April / July 2011, completed by a break above the May 2011 lower top at 271.12. A steady advance followed and the ease with which
the 2010 high at 291.97 high was cleared was indicative of a resumption of the major underlying uptrend, with a slight new all-time high having seen been leſt at 317.71 (November 2011), slightly beyond two Fibonacci projection targets, ahead of the latest dip. A golden cross of the (red & green) 13 & 52 week moving averages occurred in September (accompanied by MACD regaining the pivotal zero line) and we now look for the latest dip to ideally leave a higher low by former resistance around 284.83-291.97, from where a further multi-month rise could commence. Eventual clearance of the 317.08-317.71 area may open a move towards the 344.30-349.93 area, where the next two Fibonacci projections come in. Tis is also around the top of a long-term projected bull channel.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 09 December EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR
Current level 25.475 305.40 4.5190 4.3440 3.7600 31.530 1.8480 8.2020
Major trend Sideways Up Up
Sideways Sideways Up Up Up
Major target
344.30 & 349.93 4.9284 & 5.5502
Trend change level 23.934 / 26.614 268.83 4.1220
34.218 & 36.353 2.0626 & 2.2600 9.2295 & 10.6880
4.0565 / 4.3892 3.5166 / 3.9184 28.603 1.5007 7.1972
84 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2012
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