TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EURO/GBP
The cross euro/gbp was first traded in Januar y 1999, at around 0.7100, and fel l to a historical low at 0.5683 in May 2000. From the bottom, the euro began moving upwards, entering progressively a major up-trend, and reaching a historical high at 0,9809 on Januar y 1st, 2009 (+72.6% vs. the May 2000 low). From that peak a strong correction drew the cross down to a low at 0.8400 in June 2009, fol lowed by a bounce to a top at 0.9410 on October 13th 2009. From that level the down-trend resumed, with an acceleration in the last months and a new low at 0.8210 in the last weeks.
As long as the cross stays below 0.8700 the technical picture remains beari sh. A break below the low at 0.8210 would trigger a new sel l-of f , wi th f irst target the suppor t at 0.7700. The downward pressures would dimini sh above 0.8700 but only a break above the key res i stance in the 0.9150-0.9200 area (unl ikely) would give a new bul l i sh s ignal for the coming months .
FX
Maurizio Milano
TREND
Trend 3-6 months Trend 6-12 months Trend 12-18 months
down down down
S1 S2 S3
SUPPORTS
0.8210+ 0.7700+ 0.7400
SPOT PRICE 0.8301
R3 R2 R1
RESISTANCES
0.9150-0.9200+ 0.9000 0.8700
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2010 59
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