Macroeconomics FX
Paul O’Neill, has noted that US unfunded liabilities add up to 61 trillion Dollars, in the face of which big Mediterranean debtors can be seen as playing in an amateur league. Euro is probably facing a short- term stabilization. Even some recovery cannot be excluded since short positions are s i g n i f i c a n t . When
the
s i t u a t i o n calms down again, the Euro could resume its decline, but not that much. The fact that Europe is
currently
posting a current account surplus should not be forgotten. A possible double-dip for the European e c o n o m y has
been
on the positive side. Indeed, as noted from Bruce Kasman, the
compilation between
very high margins, massive unemployment, high public deficits is potentially explosive and the temptation for the public sector to extract money from corporate balance sheets is likely to be irresistible. At
a vague Venezuelan flavor) and the result has already been to have several investment plans immediately cancelled. Who thinks that world will not end in the next few weeks can take advantage of several bargains, some of them really interesting , in the stock market. Big investors with a watertight track record keep buying A m e r i c a n banks,
but
s p e c i a l offers are so numerous that it is possible to
restrict
Last event for FDJ on 40th anniversary of DDR, October 7th, 1989. The Berlin Wall will collapse just one month later. Mrs. Merkel joined opposition few months before.
m e n t i o n e d several times these days, but the positive effect of the weak Euro on export will overcome the negative impact of Mediterranean austerity. The rest of the world’s growth pace is so high that even if Europe will slow down (and will likely slow down), very good external conditions for exports should persist. As far as stock markets are
concerned, earnings announcements keep coming out
the moment analysts’ estimates do not include a growing fiscal burden for corporates in 2011 and onwards. It is a good thing to keep it in mind. The impression anyway is that governments in the US, Europe and Japan will be able to refrain from plainly exploiting corporates, still regarded as the engine of any possible growth. Australia has started such a process with a mining tax (with
the choice to sectors easier to read as cyclical, oil and materials. O b v i o u s l y , after the even easier choice of all European exporters. When a country devalues it is
quite common to see its stock market decline. If it devalues, there is usually a problem and foreign investors, noticing the problem, sell all the country’s assets, without too much of a detailed analysis. However, after six to nine months, the stock market is usually stronger.
Alessandro Fugnoli 21 May 2010
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2010 29
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67