FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJORS REPORT
TREND EURO, US DOLLAR, YEN, BRITISH POUND SPOT PRICE
16/06/2010
EURUSD USDJPY EURJPY EURGBP
DOLLAR/YEN
Dollar/yen has been moving in a major down-trend for several decades: at the beginning of the seventies it was trading at around 350, since the mid-eighties it went stably below 175. Aſter having collapsed to a historical low at 79.75 in April 1995, the dollar started a strong reversal, reaching a top at around 147.65 in August 1998. From that level, the major down-trend resumed, with a series of falling highs and “raids” below the key support at 115 (a level repeatedly supported by the Bank of Japan’s interventions). Te dollar reached a bottom at around 101.35/85 at the end of 1999, support tested again at the end of 2004. Te break of that support during 2008 caused
a new sell-off, that led the dollar to a new bottom at 84.83 at the end of November 2009. Since then the pair started moving sideways, below the resistance at 95. As long as the pair keeps moving within the 84.83 – 95 trading range we do not have any directional signals. A break above 95 would trigger a buy-signal, targeting the strong resistance at 101.50. Only above that level (premature) there would be a clear buy-signal for the coming months. Renewed weakness is expected below 88, for a new test of the 84.83 lows, below which the pair could fall, in the coming months, towards the April 1995 low at 79.75.
1.2315 91.39
112.52 0.8301
01/01/2010
1.4331 93.14 133.22 0.8858
∆%
-14.1% -1.9% -15.5% -6.3%
1.3952 90.79 126.65 0.9573
01/01/2009 ∆%
-11.7% 0.7%
-11.2% -13.3%
TREND
Trend 3-6 months Trend 6-12 months Trend 12-18 months
side-up side
down-side
S1 S2 S3
56 FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 2010
SUPPORTS 88
84.83++ 79.75+++
SPOT PRICE 91.39
R3 R2 R1
RESISTANCES 110+
101.50+ 95+
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