FUTURE OF RAIL
But clearly many existing vehicles will need to be retired or at least refurbished by then, making this a real challenge.
Brown said: “We’re going to need to build between eight and 12 vehicles every week for the next 30 years if we’re going to hit these targets – which is a frightening and extraordinary thought.”
“Electrifi cation is good, it’s going very well – but it is going to be massively under-exploited unless we come up with electric trains to operate [in electrifi ed areas]. There exists a lack of dovetailing there,” Brown said.
The main growth areas will be suburban high density and regional inter-urban trains, the group has found. They are also starting to look at rolling stock standardisation. Brown said: “We will expect common characteristics across different manufacturers.”
The forecasts
In 2014, the UK will have approximately 12,700 rail vehicles. By 2042 the country will need circa 21,600, according to the middling estimate of the steering group.
Even with the Thameslink and IEP rolling stock contracts confi rmed, it leaves a “phenomenal” number of train vehicles to be built and to enter the market in the coming years.
Informed investment
Having an accurate, realistic forecast of passenger rolling stock demand in the UK will make “a big difference” to manufacturers, offering them some degree of certainty over a pipeline of work that is worth investing in.
Whole system and whole life costs are also a focus of the group’s work, trying to “get away from the obsession of determining franchise bids with the sticker price on the front of a train” and looking instead to best value for money for the industry.
Collaboration with manufacturers has allowed the group to gather information on economies
of scale possible for larger orders of train vehicles. Brown said there was an optimum size of batch; big enough to garner bulk effi ciencies, but not too large for a single company to cope with.
The plan is currently being revised, although there are no signifi cant changes expected.
Future forecasts will include ‘milestones’ for ordering trains in time for demand and infrastructure improvements.
“If you’re putting up electric wires now for 2015, then actually you should have ordered the trains now. Because otherwise you aren’t going to have electric trains in 2015.”
www.marketforce.eu.com/ukrail309 FOR MORE INFORMATION
42 | rail technology magazine Dec/Jan 14
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