predictions for 2013 iew all look set to make waves in the new year.
Bridging started a new chapter in 2012 - but 2013 should be just as much of a page-turner. The industry broke the £1.5bn gross lending mark in 2012
according to research from The West One Bridging Index. The forecast for 2013 is equally positive. Our most recent West One Broker Sentiment Survey showed brokers predict an average 36% growth in the next 12 months. That’s a rate of growth that would make many a FTSE 100 CEO green with envy, but it looks conservative to me. It’s far slower than the blistering expansion of 2012 but the forces that drove expansion of the sector in 2012 don’t look to be changing.
Either way the verdict is clear - the industry will continue
to grow. Chief among them is the move away from the classic bridge as brokers extend the use of loans beyond the traditional gap between the purchase and sale of a property. One of the biggest drivers behind the growth is business lending - a record 94% of brokers are reporting growth in this area - and we expect this to be a significant area of growth in 2013. Remember Funding for Lending? George Osborne hoped it would reduce the cost of borrowing for small businesses. But the picture still looks bleak for them.“Some business lenders appear still to be tightening terms,” says a recent Bank of England agents’ report. Overdrafts were being restricted and banks were demanding “additional personal guarantees” for credit. Not exactly what the government intended.
Small businesses will continue to turn to bridgers for help. At the same time, the outlook for more traditional bridging, for buy-to-let development for instance, looks as alluring as ever. Away from the nuts and bolts and the cut and thrust of the day to day business of bridging, the industry will continue to professionalise too. Especially as the members of the Association of Short Term Lenders put into action an agreed set of guiding principles. Secured short-term lending is a legitimate solution in an arena where high street lenders still aren’t
Duncan Kreeger, chairman, West One Loans
functioning. ense. Do you want to be a part of the next Bigger Issue? Email
sarah@mortgageintroducer.com www.mortgageintroducer.com MORTGAGE INTRODUCER JANUARY 2013 27
2012 wasn’t a great year. The UK slipped back into recession, problems in the Eurozone loomed large and the US teetered on the edge of its fiscal cliff. But there were flashes of economic light piercing through the economic gloom as the clocks counted down to the start of 2013.
Unemployment in the UK fell significantly, mortgage lending increased (albeit slightly) and the new Governor of the Bank of England appears to be less obsessed with inflation than his predecessor Mervyn King. This bodes well for the year ahead and while we don’t expect 2013 to be a stellar year, we do believe there will be positives for the property and lending markets. One of the biggest economic moments in 2013 will be the changing of the guard at the Bank of England. Mark Carney’s pledge to focus on growth suggests he
won’t head straight for the interest rate dial when he takes post. As a result we expect rates to remain flat in 2013 and predict this will lead to repossessions continuing to fall, with final numbers down 15% on 2012. We agree with our sister company SearchFlow in its
forecast that transaction levels in the property sector will remain suppressed due to a continuing combination of tight lending criteria and nervousness among buyers and sellers. However we do expect increased positivity to lead to a 2% rise in the number of transactions over the year. What won’t be suppressed, however, will be the demand for new homes in the UK.
House building has been staggeringly short of target in
recent years and while we expect a dramatic rise this year, the number of new homes will remain woefully short of what is necessary.
And so although 2013 won’t be the year of salvation for
the property and mortgage markets, we expect Ronald Weinland, who predicted the end of the world in 2013, will turn out to be as
Mark Blackwell, managing director, Xit2
misguided as the Mayans; we’re moving in the right direction.
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48