WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
New Policies Scenario. This is equal to the current production of Russia and Norway combined. By 2035, coal demand is lower than today, and 1,350 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) lower than in the New Policies Scenario. Natural gas demand is 680 bcm lower than in the New Policies in 2035, roughly equivalent to the demand of the United States in 2010. As a result of lower demand, oil prices are $16/bbl lower in 2035 than in the New Policies Scenario.
In the Efficient World Scenario, energy-related CO2
emissions peak before 2020 and decline to 30.5 Gt in 2035, pointing to a long-term average temperature increase of 3°C. The rapid deployment of energy-efficient technologies can delay the complete “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted for a 2°C trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 in the New Policies Scenario – until 2022, buying five extra years to reach a global climate agreement. In addition to energy efficiency, however, low carbon technologies will be needed to achieve the 2°C goal. In the Efficient World Scenario, emissions of local pollutants are also cut sharply, bringing environmental and health benefits to China and India in particular.
The IEA propose six categories
of policy action, which, if widely implemented, can turn the Efficient World Scenario into reality. These categories include: increasing the visibility of energy efficiency through strengthening its measurement and disclosing its gains; prioritising efficiency by integrating it into the decision-making process in government, industry and society; increasing its affordability by creating appropriate business models and financing instruments; making efficiency mainstream by incentivising the most efficient technology options and discouraging the least efficient ones; making it real by implementing monitoring, verification and enforcement activities; and making it realisable by increasing governance and administrative capacity at all levels.
Focus on Modern Energy Access Despite progress, nearly 1.3 billion people remain
without access to electricity and 2.6 billion do not have access to clean cooking facilities. Ten countries – four in Asia and six in Africa – account for two- thirds of those people without electricity and just three countries – India, China and Bangladesh – account for more than half of those without clean cooking facilities.
In the absence of further action, we project that
nearly one billion people will be without electricity and 2.6 billion people will still be without clean cooking facilities in 2030. In the case of electricity, the number of people in developing Asia without access almost halves and Latin America achieves universal access before 2030 but, in sub-Saharan Africa, a worsening trend persists until around 2025. For cooking, developing Asia sees a significant improvement, but the number of people without access in India alone in 2030 is still twice the population of the US today. In sub-Saharan Africa, the picture worsens by around one quarter by 2030.
IEA propose six categories of policy action, which, if widely implemented, can turn the Efficient World Scenario into reality
IEA estimate that nearly $1 trillion in cumulative
investment is needed to achieve universal energy access by 2030. This is equivalent to just 3% of total energy-related infrastructure investment. The UN Year of Sustainable Energy for All generated welcome new commitments toward universal access, but
World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO-2012).
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International Energy Agency BP 586, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France T: 33 1 40 57 66 90 E:
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more is required. Our Energy for All Case shows that universal access would only increase global energy demand by 1% in 2030 and CO2 emissions by 0.6%.
IEA present an Energy Development Index (EDI)
for 80 countries, to aid policy makers in tracking progress towards providing modern energy access. It is a composite index that measures energy development at the household and community level. It reveals a broad improvement in recent years, with China, Thailand, El Salvador, Argentina,Uruguay, Vietnam and Algeria showing the greatest progress. There are also a number of countries whose EDI scores remain low; countries in sub-Saharan Africa dominate the lower half of the rankings. •
www.iea.org December 2012 85
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