World Energy Outlook 2012
Energy Outlook to 2035
Agency’s flagship publication says need to improve energy efficiency globally remains as great as ever: World Energy Outlook (WEO-2012).
THE GLOBAL ENERGY map is changing in dramatic fashion, says the International Energy Agency said as it launches the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The Agency’s flagship publication, released last month, said these changes will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades. “North America is at the forefront of a sweeping
transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. “This year’s World Energy Outlook shows that by 2035, we can achieve energy savings equivalent to nearly a fifth of global demand in 2010. In other words, energy efficiency is just as important as unconstrained energy supply, and increased action on efficiency can serve as a unifying energy policy that brings multiple benefits.”
North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production ...
The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth
in oil and natural gas output in the US will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario (the WEO’s central scenario) the US becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035. Links between regional gas markets will
strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. While regional dynamics change, global energy demand will push ever higher, growing by more than
80 December 2012
one-third to 2035. China, India and the Middle East account for 60% of the growth; demand barely rises in the OECD, but there is a pronounced shift towards gas and renewables. Fossil fuels will remain dominant in the global
energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30% to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa. Global oil demand grows by 7 mb/d to 2020 and exceeds 99 mb/d in 2035, by which time oil prices reach $125/barrel in real terms (over $215/barrel in nominal terms). A surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non-OPEC supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on OPEC after 2020. Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.
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