WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Trucks deliver a large share of
oil demand growth. The transport sector already accounts for well over half of global oil consumption, and this share increases as the number of passenger cars doubles to 1.7 billion and demand for road freight rises quickly. The latter is responsible for almost 40% of the increase in global oil demand: oil use for trucks – predominantly diesel – increases much faster than that for passenger vehicles, in part because fuel economy standards for trucks are much less widely adopted.
The US is projected to become the
US Oil & Gas Transformation US Oil & Gas Production
Source: WEO 2012, IEA The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
well beyond the United States
largest global oil producer before 2020, exceeding Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s. At the same time, new fuel efficiency measures in transport begin to curb US oil demand. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030. This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self sufficient in net terms by 2035 – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries.
Non-OPEC oil output steps up over the current decade, but supply after 2020 depends increasingly on OPEC. A surge in unconventional supplies, mainly from light tight oil in the United States, and oil sands in Canada, natural gas liquids, and a jump in deepwater production in Brazil, pushes non-OPEC production up after 2015 to a plateau above 53 mb/d, from under 49 mb/d in 2011. This is maintained until the mid-2020s, before falling back to 50 mb/d in 2035. Output from OPEC countries
rises, particularly after 2020, bringing the OPEC share in global production from its current 42% up towards 50% by 2035. The net increase in global oil production is driven entirely by unconventional oil, including a contribution from light tight oil that exceeds 4 mb/d for much of the 2020s, and by natural gas liquids. Of the $15 trillion in global upstream oil and
gas investment that is required over the period to 2035, almost 30% is in North America.
Natural gas is the only fossil fuel for which global demand grows in all three scenarios. In the New Policies Scenario, world demand increases to almost 5 tcm in 2035 compared to 3.4 tcm today. This is a result of rapid growth in developing countries, led by China, but some growth also in the OECD – due in part to abundant supply in North America. Gas resources are ample to meet this demand and estimates of their magnitude are growing.
Unconventional gas accounts for nearly half of
the increase in global gas production to 2035, with most of the increase coming from China the US and Australia. But the unconventional gas business is still in its formative years, with uncertainty in many countries about the extent and quality
Trends in Oil & Gas Import Dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide
Source: WEO 2012, IEA December 2012 83
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