Quake Model Updates


Studies to update ground motion predictions are under way for central and eastern United States. The resulting models will be incorporated into earthquake hazard maps and catastrophe models used by insurers.


“We can expect when the NGA East comes out in 2014 that there’s going to be a similar major update coming from the modelers.” Laurie Johnson, Lexington Insurance


Two major seismic modeling projects are underway for central and eastern United States. The Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization Project provides a new seismic source model for use by the nuclear industry and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the analysis earthquake risk for nuclear facilities. The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Project for Eastern and Central North America is developing a ground-motion model for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The NGA Project data is due in 2014. It’s fair to expect that catastrophe- modeling firms will release a major update to their models once this data is available, just as they did after data from the NGA Project for the western U.S. was incorporated into national seismic hazard maps.


Until then, catastrophe models could be updated to reflect lessons from earthquakes in Haiti, New Zealand, Japan and Chili, including changes to vulnerability functions.


Copyright © 2012 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.


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