The Overdue Quake


If we are in a period of increasing activity of large-magnitude earthquakes, there’s particular concern for the vulnerable places that are overdue.


“You look at places that are kind of overdue, well the Pacific Northwest is one of those.”


Laurie Johnson, Lexington Insurance


It appears that beginning with the 2004 Sumatra earthquake we might have entered a period of increased activity with a global cluster of large-magnitude earthquakes. A similar cluster may have occurred in the 1950s and 1960s, including the large Alaska earthquake of 1964. If, indeed, we are in a new period of global clustering, areas on the plate boundaries that have so far avoided a mega earthquake are potentially more vulnerable. For example, the Pacific Northwest is susceptible to a magnitude 9 event or even greater. The last big earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone was in 1700, and we are well past the projected return period of less than 300 years.


Copyright © 2012 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.


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