Large Potential


A little more than one year ago, a massive tornado leveled nearly a third of Joplin, Mo., raising awareness of the potential for severe losses in terms of both life and property.


“What last year tells us is that very large potentials remain possible with respect to tornadoes and we shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of complacency.”


Roger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado


The episodic nature of tornadoes means that the same giant tornado can cause little damage in an empty field or $5 billion in damage, as occurred last year in Joplin. Looking back at historical tornadoes, researchers have considered what their damage would be given today’s level of development. While 1953 and 1965 were comparable to 2011 in terms of aggregate tornado losses, there was a 37-year reprieve between 1974 and 2011. Data on tornado statistics is not solid enough to draw conclusions about the long-term trend, but it’s clear that the potential for large losses has certainly increased with development.


Copyright © 2012 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.


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