The Year that Shook Science


The catastrophes of 2011, particularly earthquakes, open the door for learning many new lessons, including the need to challenge modelers on how they treat uncertainty.


“Even though we knew that New Zealand and Japan were capable of these earthquakes there were some really big surprises.” Laurie Johnson, Lexington Insurance


The large magnitude of the Japan earthquake and tsunami, the cluster of aftershocks and ground failure in New Zealand, and the Virginia earthquake all came as surprises that provide many lessons but also illustrate the need to investigate long ago events in light of present day exposures. Another key lesson is to challenge the modelers on how they treat uncertainty and to understand those uncertainties when using the models.


Copyright © 2012 by A.M. Best Company, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise.


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