20 The Jewish Herald • Friday, March 22, 2013 17 N Islamic Groups Replace Traditional Foes:


near the Israeli city of Ashkelon. Two weeks ago, Egypt raised its state


Israel Faces Long-Term Severe Instability On All Of Its Borders H


“We used to have three or four enemies; now we have 10,000 or 20,000, not necessarily States — how do you deter a group that’s not a State?” Ben Sales


ERZLIYA, Israel — Three weeks ago, militants in Gaza landed a rocket


of emergency in the Sinai Peninsula, warning of an increase in jihadist ac- tivity there. Last week, a rock thrown by a West


Bank Palestinian critically wounded a three-year-old Israeli girl. And this week, Israel plans to ask


the United States for support should it strike Syrian weapons convoys en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Along both its northern and southern


frontiers, Israel faces more political in- stability than it has in decades — con- ditions that some security experts fear could open a door to greater terrorism. The upheavals of the Arab Spring


may have reduced the threat of a conven- tional war with a neighboring State, but the prospects for peaceful borders — let alone full normalization with the Arab world — have dimmed, forcing Israeli military planners to prepare for long- term uncertainty. “For the first time in decades, we


have four active borders that have ter- ror activities: Lebanon, Syria, Sinai and Gaza,” said Maj. Gen. Aviv Kocha- vi, the director of military intelligence for the Israel Defense Forces. “The change that’s happening is deep and foundational. The central characteris- tic of this change, even if it seems banal, is instability and uncertainty.” Kochavi was speaking last week at the Herzliya Conference, an elite policy


Israel has begun construction on the new fence separating the Golan Heights from Syria


and security gathering dominated this year by concerns about terrorist activi- ty on Israel’s frontiers. Kochavi said ter- rorists are “filling the vacuum” of unsta- ble States. While the consequences have been minimal, officials say the danger of an attack is growing. “Not a week goes by, not to say hard-


ly a day, when I don’t have to deal with an issue that you didn’t even hear about, that could have resulted in a strategic threat,” IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz told the conference. Of particular concern to defense offi-


cials is the Syrian border, beyond which a civil war has been raging for two years — one that is threatening to spill over. Israel has begun building a fence on the perimeter of the Golan Heights and in January bombed a weapons convoy it feared was being shipped from Syria to Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon. The possibility that Syrian arms, in-


cluding stockpiles of chemical weapons, could wind up in the hands of terrorist groups is among the primary security


concerns facing Israel. But the threats go deeper. As secular strongmen have vanished


from the stage — first in Egypt, and po- tentially in Syria — Islamists are ris- ing in their place. It’s a development that could recast the Arab-Israeli con- flict in religious rather than geopoliti- cal terms. “We’re seeing a decline in national


identity and a rise in religious identity” in the Arab world, said Dan Meridor, Is- rael’s outgoing minister of intelligence. “The old paradigm of war is changing its face.” On the whole, religiously inspired


terrorist groups can be difficult to de- ter. Generally they are less suscepti- ble to diplomatic pressure than nation States. And unlike the dictators they appear to be replacing, the groups en- joy more popular support. “We used to have three or four ene-


mies,” Meridor said. “Now we have 10,000 or 20,000. Our enemies are greater and are not necessarily States. How do you


deter a group that’s not a State?” Beyond the problem of deterrence is


the question of victory. Israel’s recent skirmishes with terrorist groups — notably its 2006 war against Hezbol- lah and its 2009 and 2012 campaigns against Hamas in Gaza — have led to something closer to stalemate than the decisive victories achieved in past con- ventional wars. Lurking behind a few of the non-


State actors, though, is a State with which Israelis have become all too familiar: Iran. The Islamic Republic is Hezbollah’s primary funder and one of the few remaining allies of the teetering Assad regime in Syria. Kochavi said that Iran and Hezbollah have organized an army of 50,000 in Syria and are trying to increase their influence there. “Iran and Hezbollah are both doing


all in their power to assist Assad’s re- gime,” Kochavi said. “Iran and Hezbol- lah are also preparing for the day af- ter Assad’s fall, when they will use this army to protect their assets and inter- ests in Syria.” Experts said that in the face of four insecure


borders, Israel’s best bet is to stay alert and hang tough. But Danny Rothschild, director of the


Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya’s Institute of Policy and Strategy, told the conference that Israel needs to be pro- active in directing the Middle East to- ward peace and prosperity. “Israel needs to be more involved in


shaping the future of the region, even in a quiet way,” he said. “I have a feel- ing events will make it deal with issues, even if it hasn’t intended to.”


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