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tion early in the 2013 legislative session to cover those shortfalls. And, he said lawmakers would need to take dramatic action to solve Medicaid’s funding issues in 2013.


“Chipping away at the edges won’t ad-


dress the problem,” he said. “After do- ing everything we knew how to do [in 2011] we still had a significant shortfall.” Whatever action the legislature takes in 2013 likely will include a “revenue so- lution,” meaning a tax increase, he said. “The hole is too big not to see a revenue solution,” Mr. Gilbert said. The good news, however, is that state


Former Texas Health and Human Services Commissioner Don Gilbert, left, says the state already has a $10 billion deficit, and lawmakers will have to take dramatic action to solve Medicaid’s funding issues in 2013.


revenues appear to be trending up. Sales tax collections are up about 12 percent in recent months, and high oil and gas prices mean that taxes on those com- modities are bringing about $2 billion a year into the state’s Rainy Day Fund. The fund was at about $6.5 billion at the end of this year’s legislative session. Speaking on a panel with Mr. Gilbert,


State already $10 billion in debt


Just three months into the state’s two-year 2012–13 budget cycle Texas already faces a budget shortfall of perhaps as much as $10 billion, said former Texas Health and Human Services Commissioner Don Gilbert. Speaking at Texas Medical Association’s 2011 Advocacy Retreat in Austin on Dec.


3, Mr. Gilbert said funding for Medicaid already appears to be $4.4 billion short of what is needed to meet actual caseload. That could rise to somewhere between $5.5 billion and $6 billion by March 2013, he said.


Plus, public education is looking at a $4 billion shortfall in funding to cover actual


enrollment, he added. Mr. Gilbert said the shortfalls in Medicaid and public education were predictable


because lawmakers based funding for those programs on caseload and enrollment projections that were obviously too low. He further predicted that lawmakers would have to pass an emergency appropria-


Fort Worth political consultant Bryan Eppstein said everything will be on the table when it comes to taxes, including the possible repeal of exemptions from the state’s business tax that physicians enjoy. Mr. Eppstein added that a major chal- lenge facing the next legislature is who will be in the leadership. With Gov. Rick Perry running for president and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst running for a U.S. Sen- ate seat, it is possible that neither will return in 2013. That means the Texas Senate would be in a position to pick a new governor and/or lieutenant gover- nor from its own ranks, he said. Meanwhile, leaders from TMA and numerous specialty societies began


February 2012 TEXAS MEDICINE 11


JIM LINCOLN


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