Technical and sustainable biomass supply potentials and expected demand for biomass in 2050 (primary energy)1 Maximum value

Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent per year

35 000 Minimum value 30 000 25 000

World energy demand

20 000 15 000 Agricultural and forest residues

World energy demand in 2008

10 000

World biomass demand

5 000

World biomass demand in 2008

0 Agricultural productivity improvement5

Sustainable biomass potential

Energy crops with exclusion4

Technical biomass potential

1. Based on global energy models and expected total world energy demand in 2050; 2. Additional energy crops grown in areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity; 3. Net annual increment minus current harvest; 4. Excluding areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity; 5. Additional potential when agricultural productivity increases faster than historic trends thereby producing more food from the same land area.

Sustainable biomass potential in 2050 Energy crops without exclusion2 Surplus forest production3 15 000

13 000 14 000

7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000

4 000 5 000 6 000

1 000 2 000 3 000

0 Source: A Bauen et al., “Bioenergy - a Sustainable and Reliable Energy Source”, IEA Bioenergy, 2009 adapted from Dornburg et al., Biomass assessment: Assessment of global biomass potentials and their links to food, water, biodiversity, energy demand and economy, 2008. Figure 3.2 Technical and sustainable biomass supply potentials and expected demand for biomass in 2050 (primary energy) 17