Or, not. It took three election losses – in 1993, 1997 and 2000 – before the Reformers/Allianc- ers/ Conservatives realized that they would ben- efit from cooperation/coalition/merger. Will it take three election cycles for reluctant Liberals and New Democrats to come to the same con- clusion?
Based on recent experience, probably. Now that the New Democrats have done what
Ian Davey and I and others had most feared – dis- placed the Liberal Party as the progressive alterna- tive to the merged conservative movement – co- operation/coalition/merger is likely DOA. Shortly after voters elevated him to the post of Leader of the Official Opposition – and shortly after they gave him the largest number of Opposition mem- bers in anyone’s memory – Jack Layton summarily dismissed the notion of getting together, in some fashion, with the third-place Liberals. It wasn’t sur- prising. It was stupid and short-sighted, however. The NDP Official Opposition came in with a wave, entirely based in Quebec. In 2015, it’ll go out with
another wave, too. The most likely beneficiary of their losses will be the Liberal Party. And, once again, the two parties will continue to scramble for the same pool of votes. Meanwhile, Stephen Harper – or his successor – will quietly smile. Having learned at Jean Chretien’s knee why it is
always better to divide your opposition – and hav- ing seen what it did for Chretien’s three successive majorities – it astounds me, frankly, that sane New Democrats and Liberals continue to believe that the result they obtain in 2015 will be somehow different from the results they obtained 2006, 2008 and 2011. It won’t be. It’s the dictionary definition of insanity, in fact:
keep doing the same thing, over and over, and ex- pect a different result. The result will be the same. And, somewhere, Ste- phen Harper will be continuing to laugh his ass off.
Warren Kinsella is the president and the founder of the Daisy Consulting Group. His web site can be found at
warrenkinsella.com
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June 2011 | Campaigns & Elections 11
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