systems as well as the provision of readily available, high quality data and information management. Additionally, to the naval architect’s
advantage, greater automation and computing power will provide even more power to the designer with developments such as the ‘virtual test tank’ perhaps being a proven method by this time.
Carbon management Driven mostly by legislation, the management of carbon emissions is highlighted as a major theme and naval architects across the board felt carbon management will be a major industry in its own right. It is also suggested that likely future growth in carbon markets and offsetting will have ramifications for the shipping industry.
Securing resources and infrastructure Demand for natural resources is expected to continue to accelerate towards 2050. These resources include minerals, forestry, bio-productive land, fresh water, fossil fuel reserves and renewable energy resources among others. The current robust competition for natural resources throughout Asian, sub-Saharan African and South American supply chains is likely to intensify and where demand outstrips supply conflict may ensue. Furthermore the reliance on
economically critical infrastructure presents many targets for terrorist
Challenges increase for water management in the face of resource scarcity (Image courtesy of Howard Canning, BMT Group Ltd)
attack. Piracy, terrorism and conflict will demand ever more sophisticated actions to defend resources and infrastructure. This has consequences for private sector investment in security and the demands placed on national militaries. In considering this naval architects will perhaps have to further focus on vessel security and designs that secure the integrity of the vessel from attacks.
Water scarcity Te likelihood of increased ater scarcity as we move towards 2050 is something on which almost all participants across the workshops agreed. Most felt that it would have serious implications for food production and health, particularly in developing nations. It is felt that this might lead to population displacement and even possible demand for global freshwater transportation or at least large
scale ship-borne desalination plants. Te ocean going fresh water tanker could well become a reality.
Changes to trade routes Te distribution of supply and demand of energy, natural resources and labour are certain to impact on trade routes. Whilst specific predictions may be difficult, it is felt that changes are inevitable and will impact on port developments, new transport infrastructure, vessel design and logistics.
Frontier exploration In all scenarios it seems inevitable that over the next decade there will be further frontier exploration and production of fossil fuel reserves. BP estimates that exploration in the Arctic Ocean may discover up to 200bn barrels of oil. Te US Geological Survey provides a more conservative, but still very large estimate of 90billionn barrels. Whichever is closest to the fact, the logistics of this exploration activity will require greater supply chain support both in planning and the development of infrastructure. Te need for additional icebreakers and tankers suitable for extreme cold weather operation will provide naval architects and shipyards with the opportunity to develop innovative designs to make ice operations safer and more profitable.
Conclusion While crystal ball gazing is fraught with difficulties, scenario planning can certainly provide an insight into the trends we can expect to encounter in future years. Over the next 40 years we can expect to see continued instability and change on a global scale as we react to the ongoing challenges of socio-economic uncertainty, economic volatility and damage to the environment. Change is a double edged sword and while it brings uncertainty it also provides the opportunity to develop new and innovative technologies that can deliver both social and economic benefits. Are naval architects across the globe ready for the challenge? NA
A car caught in a flood and swept away in the raging water as sea levels rise.
The Naval Architect January 2011 37
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