Feature 1 | GREEN SHIP TECHNOLOGY
prevailing economic and social conditions and the limits of scientific knowledge. Te two primary axes give rise to four basic
scenarios, shown in the following graphic (right). BMT naval architects took part in a series
of workshops to identify the major issues/ topics likely to emerge in each of the scenarios and considered how they might impact on their work in the seascape.
Geographical changes Te continued rise of the BRIC economies, particularly China, as well as a number of other developing economies is expected. There are likely to be significant drivers of population migration in the year 2050, including war, famine, sea level rises, water scarcity and economic migration. As the geographical basis of supply and demand in services, goods and resources shiſts both the size and types of vessels required might need to dramatically alter. Climate change, economic development,
energy price, food production, cargo types, population distribution, thawing arctic ice, extreme weather events and security will all contribute to changing trade routes. Whilst it is not possible to map future routes with accuracy, it may be possible to pinpoint highly likely developments. Changes in trade routes necessarily impact on port developments, transport infrastructure and modality, vessel design and logistics, while short-sea shipping has also emerged as an important issue. The geographic basis of supply and
demand does not only relate to materials and goods, but also energy. Frontier exploration in the quest to identify and produce new fossil fuel reserves will drive operations into new and evermore physically and politically challenging locations. Te same may be true for the development of renewable energy sources, particularly off shore wind.
Efficiencies By 2050 it is highly likely that there will be even greater pressure for both cost and energy efficiencies. These two issues are deeply interrelated and are well established themes across marine transportation. Specific issues likely to be prevalent in 2050 include increases in the price of energy, particularly liquid fuels and emerging requirements to manage carbon emissions. Te spectre of carbon management is expected to drive
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The primary axes that give four basic scenarios for change.
efficiency measures in the private sector. Energy efficiency in transportation has
long been driven by fuel prices. Tis of course continues and will be amplified by shortages of traditional fuels. New efficiency measures will become economically viable as the shipping and aviation industries internalise the cost of carbon emissions. In all scenarios, there is a drive for greater energy efficiency. In shipping this will be demonstrated in vessel design, with particular attention on emphasis on propulsion and auxiliary systems and hull optimisation. Te greater gains in efficiency terms in the
next 20 years will come from modifications to existing vessels both in operation and through the use of retro-fitted energy saving technologies. Looking ahead to 2050, this is where the naval architects will come into their own – what does the ultra low energy ship look like for 2050. Is it an evolution of current vessel types and designs or starting with the ‘clean sheet’ of paper and removing the traditional constraints, is it something altogether different? Idealistic perhaps, but a new approach may be required to meet the efficiency targets that will eventually come into force.
Regulation, legislation and accountability Te steady trend in ever tighter environmental (and other) legislation is anticipated and it is felt that scrutiny and public accountability will increase concomitantly, naturally linked to compliance and rising performance
standards. Te consequences of this trend were generally seen as increased efficiencies, emissions reduction, technological innovation and more carbon trading. It is also felt that better communications and public access to information are drivers in this area. Specific consequences of this might be the development of cleaner bunkers in shipping and investor interrogation of companies in the private sector. Legislation, regulation and accountability are strong drivers of change amongst the shipping community. Compliance related work will proliferate and naval architects with expertise in this area will find themselves in acute demand.
Automation and the control of technology Automation is expected to play a key role in the lives of naval architects as it increases in sophistication and may even be deployed to control technology. Onboard ships, intelligent machines will be utilised for cargo handling, remote monitoring of vessel performance/ safety and energy management systems will be the norm as current technologies open the door to future developments. A rise in automation and intelligent
machinery is predicted in all scenarios, driven by demand for safety, efficiency, productivity and security. Automation and interaction between machinery may also have an important role to play in driving energy efficiencies in freight handling. For the naval architect this heightens the importance of the design and application of automated
The Naval Architect January 2011
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