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Feature 1 | GREEN SHIP TECHNOLOGY Anticipating a Sea Change


Many in the maritime industry want to open a window onto life in 2050 and ask what are the geo-political and socio-economic factors that will drive change and frame the conditions that will drive naval architecture? Del Redvers, head of sustainability at BMT Group, gazes into his crystal ball.


are experiencing. The need to pre-empt future trends and changes is key to business planning and major corporations have gone as far as employing futurologists to ensure that they are ahead of the curve. Tere are many variables which will shape


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the world of 2050, the needs of customers and the markets in which they operate. Tese issues include demographics, climate change, resource availability, political stability and conflict. Companies have always sought greater intelligence on the markets in which they operate. Tis informs strategic decision making and business planning. However, our ability to see into the future is constrained; the more variables we have to consider, the more restricted our foresight becomes. It seems that a decade into the new millennium and there is greater uncertainty about the business environment than ever before. So taking the time to create a structure which allows the future to be realistically modelled, impacts considered and potential actions evaluated provides greater certainty and confidence. It is easier to tackle the challenges we comprehend than those about which we have no clue. Among the uncertainties which underpin


the global trends likely to have a significant impact on the naval architect, two are of particular interest: Firstly, ecological versus economic development and secondly, globalisation against regionalisation. Tese axes of uncertainty were developed by BMT drawing the ideas developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).


Ecological v Economic Development What will be the impact of increasing environmental awareness on global


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he current global, socio-economic instability is emblematic of the levels of change that world markets


economic development? In the ecological versus economic development debate scientific research, clear physical evidence and public awareness are driving legislation. At the national government and international agency level this means expanding legal frameworks for the management of environmental issues and the responsible use of natural resources. This mostly developed-world phenomenon is translating


environmental consequence. Whilst these do not necessarily sit at opposite ends of the same spectrum, their juxtaposition on an individual axis neatly frames the attitudinal dilemma.


Globalisation v Regionalisation Te globalisation versus regionalisation axis considers the uncertainty of a more globalised or localised world. Factors such as free trade, political stability and affordable, abundant energy may lead to greater globalisation of markets. Energy security, trade tariffs and protectionism, climatic events and resource scarcity may lead to stronger regionalised or national markets and behaviours. Regionalisation in this context may also refer to the behaviour of large individual national economies, particularly China. This tension may well underpin many


issues of interest to the naval architect including the nature of commercial shipping, transport routes, defence and security and the dominance of global, regional or national legislative bodies.


Cities and trade routes are vulnerable to environmental change.


into real change in developing nations. Te ideas of technological development and environmental awareness come together in the concept of “leapfrogging” whereby clean technologies are transferred to and indeed pioneered in developing nations allowing them a “green” industrial revolution. The IPCC define a global behavioural


spectrum around environmental awareness. At one end is a goal of living within ecological limits, oſten expressed in terms of “one planet living”. At the other is a continued focus on economic growth almost irrespective of


Technological development Tese two axes of uncertainty can provide a basis for differentiating between possible scenarios which could result from prevailing socio-economic and geo-political drivers. An additional dimension of interest is the rate at which new technologies are developed and applied. Tere has been much debate on the role of technology in addressing some of the most significant challenges we face as a global society. It is commonly discussed in the context of clean technology solutions which allow “business as usual”, making the most efficient use of natural resources whilst addressing environmental and social impacts. Our ability to find technological solutions


may be limited by several factors including the scale and urgency of problems faced,


The Naval Architect January 2011


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