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The Nation Arizona’s immigration lawgoes beforeU.S. appeals court
Election could affectU.S. pledge on international climate aid As election nears, voter outreach intensifies Digest
Countdown begins for shuttle launch
TheWorld Iraqi worshipers, troops killed in church takeover
In poultry way, Russia has a leg up onU.S.
Washington Business GOP blasts property oversight
The Fed Page
High Court Robert Barnes on calls for impeachment of justices
Opinion California, Florida try reforming the redistricting process
Carnage inMexico fueled byU.S. guns, demand for drugs ’Mortal Kombat’ for children?
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THE MONDAY FIX Chris Cillizza
China’s small manufacturers say yuan’s appreciation already hurtsA12 In India, newwealth brings a rise in giving Brazil elects first woman president
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A17 The races to watch on where the election is headed I
nless than24hours,polls openacross the countrywith dozens of races for Senate and
governorupfor grabs—aswell as upto 100 competitiveHouse contests. Withsomany races—not to
mentioncontrol of theHouse and Senate—inthe balance, it ishard to knowwhere to look onelection night. That’swhere theFix comes in.
Belowyou’ll findanhour-by-hour guide to the races thatwill serve as leading indicators ofwhere the electionisheaded.Think of it as a viewer’s guide forTuesdaynight. (Look for anexpandedversionof the guide inthe onlineFix inthe morning.)
7 p.m.: Indiana/Kentucky There are threeHouse races in
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theHoosier State thatwill tellus what kindofnight itwill be for Democrats.The 8thDistrict open seat is a certainpickupfor Republicans, andthe 9thDistrict fight betweenRep.BaronHill (D) andlawyerToddYoung (R) is a jumpball.Rep. JoeDonnelly (D) is favoredinthe SouthBend- based2ndDistrict. IfDemocrats lose just one of those three, they canholdtheHouse.Lose two and theirmajority isprobably gone. Lose all three, andRepublicans will gainupwardof 60seats. In Kentucky,Republicans are spendingmoney onsemi- longshot challengerAndyBarr in the 6thDistrict race againstRep. BenChandler (D). IfChandler loses,Republicans couldwell make ahistoricnumber of pickups.Meanwhile, inthe Senate race, if stateAttorney General JackConway (D) can defeat ophthalmologistRand Paul (R), itwouldbe amajor upset forDemocrats.
7:30 p.m.:Ohio/ West Virginia
OhioGov.TedStrickland(D) is
indeeppoliticalperil inhis race against formerRep. JohnKasich (R).TheWhiteHousewouldlove to see Stricklandwinbecause controlling the governor’s mansionina state likely to be very competitive in2012 could givePresidentObama a legup. In WestVirginia,popularGov. Joe Manchin(D) appears tohave stabilizedhis bidfor the state’s openSenate seat.But,Obama and thenationalDemocraticParty are veryunpopular intheMountain State, andthat coulddragwealthy businessmanJohnRaese (R) across the finishline.
8 p.m.: Florida Themarquee governor’s race of
thenight is betweenstateChief
“Weare coming back. You do not want to put us at risk. You gave [Republicans] eight years to dig the hole.Nowgive us four years to prove we can take you where America
needs to go.” – Bill Clinton, stumping on behalf of Democrats in Ohio.
POLITICALFORECAST 1 Day until Election Day $950,000
The amount of cash the Democratic National Committee transferred to the Illinois Democratic Party on Saturday, the same day that President Obama headlined a rally at the University of Chicago. The transfer was the largest of several the committee made three days before the election to a handful of state parties, among them Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
5 to 8 160
Seats the nonpartisan Cook Political Report expects Republicans to pick up in the Senate. The revised estimate means that the GOP’s chances of re-taking the Senate “are now nonexistent.”
The number of ballot initiatives that will be decided Tuesday by voters in 37 states. Initiatives being considered run the gamut from the California initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana to an Oklahoma initiative banning the use of sharia law in state courts.
FinancialOfficerAlex Sink (D) andformerhealth-care executive Rick Scott (R).Bothpartieshave dumpedscads ofmoney into the state, andDemocrats see this outcome as crucial to their entire night.Also keepaneye onthe SouthFlorida 25thDistrict open- seat race, a rare opportunity for a Democraticpickup.
9 p.m.: Colorado/ SouthDakota
No racehas seenmore
spending by outside groups— $25millionandcounting—than thematchupbetweenappointed Sen.MichaelBennet (D) and WeldCountyprosecutorKen Buck (R).Buckhas triedtomake the contest a referendumonthe president, buthehasmade enoughverbal gaffes to give Bennet apathto victory inwhat couldbe the closest Senate race in the country. SouthDakotahas
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only one congressionaldistrict, but it isplayinghost to one of the best racesnationwide between Rep. StephanieHersethSandlin (D) andstateRep.KristiNoem (R).HersethSandlinhas runa solidcampaigntodistance herself fromObama inthis Republican-leaning state, andthe racewill serve as a test case for whethermoderateDemocrats canescape thedrag of the nationalparty.
10 p.m.:Nevada The Senate race betweenHarry
M.Reid, themostpowerful senator inWashington, and former state assemblymember SharronAngle (R) is oncourse to top$50millioninspending—a remarkable sumgivenhowfew voters are genuinelyundecidedin the contest.Bothsides see symbolic importance inthis race: ADemocraticwinwouldsalvage
QUOTEOFTHEWEEK
BESTTHING THATHAPPENED TOREPUBLICANS
The battle for theHouse continued to tilt theirway.
Election observers now would be shocked if Republicans don’t take the House. Predictions have crept up into the 50-plus range forGOP takeovers, and they need only 39. Democrats,meanwhile, keep spendingmoney on seats that appeared safe a fewweeks ago. They appear to be conceding upward of 15 to 20 seats, and Republicans need towin only about half of the remaining toss-ups to get into themid-40s.
BESTTHING THATHAPPENED TODEMOCRATS
The Senate appears out of reach for Republicans.
Sens.BarbaraBoxer (D-Calif.) and PattyMurray (D-Wash.) appear to be carrying significant leads into the final day of the 2010 campaign, whileGov. JoeManchin (D) looks to have found his footing inWest Virginia. If two of the threewin,Republicans basically have no chance of taking the Senate this year. A Field Poll showsBoxer ahead of formerHewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina (R) by eight points,while a University ofWashington poll showsMurray up by six on former gubernatorial candidateDinoRossi (R). Beyond those three, there are only eight really good GOP pickup opportunities, andRepublicans need 10 takeovers.
what couldbe a very toughnight, andaRepublicanvictorywould mark the secondtime infour cycles thepartyhadbeatenthe Democratic Senate leader.
11 p.m.:Washington state/Oregon
The race betweenSen.Patty
Murray (D) andformer state senatorDinoRossi (R) in Washingtonhas beentightening recently, butMurray remains very well likedamong the electorate. Rossi is trying topaintMurray as aninsider, apotentiallypotent message inananti-incumbent year. InOregon, formerNBA playerChrisDudley (R)has runa strong campaignandis inanip- and-tuck racewithformer governor JohnKitzhaber (D).A Dudleywinwouldgive Republicans amuch-needed footholdinthePacificNorthwest.
chris.cillizza@
wpost.com
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