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Politics&Nation Maldives’ fight on carbon status is one of survival
TheWorld North Korean ruler and heir apparent attend parade
Workers reinforce tunnel at Chile mine
Washington Business Blockbuster ponders a sequel
Value Added: An entrepreneur and author offers his tips for success Financial regulators planning worldwide rules to curb risks Google working on self-driving cars
Fed Page Federal bookstore newest haven for paper-loving policy wonks
Background checks zero in on the undisclosed Opinion
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Israeli citizenship bill would require loyalty pledge to Jewist state A11
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Editorial.Health-care overhaul survives its first court challenge A16 Editorial. An upside-down federal tax policy Editorial.D.C.’s plethora of Election Day choices Robert J. Samuelson:Welcome to the Age of Austerity E.J. Dionne Jr.: Class warfare erupts before midterm elections
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Ron Haskins and W. Steven Barnett: Newevaluation system putsHead Start to the test Greg Sargent: The Democrats’ esteem problem
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CHRIS CILLIZZA The Monday Fix
How trickle-down voting could swing close races R
ick Snydermay be House Democrats’ biggest nightmare.
TheMichigan Republican, a
former head of the Gateway computer company, is running way ahead of LansingMayor Virg Bernero (D) in the Wolverine State’s gubernatorial race. (A poll released Sunday gave hima 20-point advantage.) Such a widemargin for Snyder creates the potential for a down- ballot sweep that could wash out Democrats’ chances in two hotly contested House districts. State Rep. GaryMcDowell (D)
and surgeon Dan Benishek (R) are competing for retiring Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak’s seat in the 1st District — a swing district in northernMichigan that Barack Obama won with just 50 percent two years ago. Rep.Mark Schauer (D) is
trying to beat back former congressman TimWalberg (R) in a rematch of their 2008 contest for a tossup seat in the 7th District, where Obama won with 52 percent. With Snyder leading Bernero
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by such a widemargin, there is considerable concern among Democratic strategists that a poor performance at the top of the ticket couldmake just enough difference to sway the 1st District and 7th District races against them. The situation inMichigan is
themost extreme — but far fromthe only — example of how Democratic struggles at the top of the ticket could well cost the party a handful of congressional contests on Nov. 2. “Getting tied to an unpopular
ticket hurts with swing voters, but it alsomakes it even harder to rally your base and get them to turn out,” said one Democratic consultant who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the problemcandidly. The trouble for Democrats is
most acute in theMidwest. In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn (D)
is running behind state Sen. Bill Brady (R), while the Senate race
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QUOTEOFTHEWEEK
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22 51
Days left until Election Day.
DEBATEOFTHEWEEK Thursday, Nevada Senate race
BESTTHINGTHAT HAPPENEDTOREPUBLICANS 1The unemployment rate stayed at 9.6 percent in the economic report released Friday. That’s the last major economic report before the election, which means there is basically nothing on the jobs front that Democrats can point to as evidence of progress.
1Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D) and former state assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) have just one more debate scheduled, and it’s the only live, televised debate they will hold. Republicans acknowledge that Angle must demonstrate a level of competence and seriousness to voters if she wants to pull an upset on Reid on Nov. 2.
BESTTHINGTHAT HAPPENEDTODEMOCRATS 1Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was lookingmore andmore as if he would lose to ex-WorldWrestling Entertainment CEO LindaMcMahon (R) in the state’s open Senate race—until no fewer than five polls last week showed that Blumenthal had rebuilt a double-digit lead. If Democrats can secure Connecticut— and California andWashington—it’s basically going to be impossible for Republicans to retake the Senate this year.
between state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep.Mark Steven Kirk (R) is a dead heat. A loss by Quinn or Giannoulias would bode poorly for the likes of Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D) and Phil Hare (D) and could endanger what should be a Democratic open-seat pickup in the 10th District. InWisconsin, both
MilwaukeeMayor TomBarrett, the Democratic nominee for governor, and Sen. Russell Feingold (D) are trailing their Republican opponents. And it’s
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no accident that Republicans are feelingmore bullish about their chances of beating Rep. Steve Kagen (D) and winning the open 7th District seat being vacated by retiring Rep. David R. Obey (D). Ditto in Iowa, where Gov.
Chet Culver (D) appears headed for a drubbing at the hands of former governor Terry Branstad (R) — a defeat that, if it’s large enough,might sweep Reps. Leonard L. Boswell (D) and Dave Loebsack (D) out of office. The top-of-the-ticket
situations are similar in Ohio and Pennsylvania, each of which has a contested gubernatorial and Senate seat on the ballot. Republicans are running well in all four contests — although the Ohio governor’s race looks to be very close — and a strong showing at the top of the ticket could jeopardize asmany as 11 Democratic-held House seats in the two states. There are, without question, a
handful of places where the top- of-the-ticket’s performance is
Incumbent House Democrats who have trailed in at least one public or private poll this cycle, according to the Cook Political Report. That’s the most ever seen in the nonpartisan handicapper’s history.
3
States that former president Bill Clinton is hitting this week as he kicks off another round of campaign- trail visits. He’s stumping on behalf of Jack Conway, Harry M. Reid, Loretta Sanchez, Gavin Newsom and Jerry Brown (his onetime rival).
—Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake
likely to aid targeted House Democrats. The best example is New
York, where state Attorney General AndrewM. Cuomo (D) appears headed for an easy victory over controversial — to say the least — businessman Carl Paladino (R) in the governor’s race, while Sens. Charles E. Schumer (D) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D) are expected to cruise as well. That Democratic tide should
aid Empire State incumbents in tough races, such as Reps. Bill Owens,Michael Arcuri and John Hall.Wins by all three would put a damper on Republicans’ Housemajority hopes. In the broad view, however,
it’s clear that the struggles of Democratic gubernatorial and, to a lesser extent, Senate candidates have the potential to make an already difficult election thatmuch tougher for House incumbents trying to find a way to win. In close races — and there
will be lots of themat the House level in 22 days’ time — a few hundred votes canmake all the difference. And that’s where a stronger-than-expected (or weaker-than-expected) showing at the top of the ticket will matter — in amajor way.
chris.cillizza@
wpost.com
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