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Burnham, and “Mortality After who participated represented an
sher
A the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A array of academic fields, includ-
Jana
Cross-Sectional Cluster Sample ing statistics, demography, epide-
b
y
Survey,” by Gilbert Burnham, miology, political science, history,
o
Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, sociology, psychology, and survey
P
hot
and Les Roberts. methodology.
After those studies became pub- Over two days, several estab-
licly available, a political and scien- lished methods for recording, esti-
tific controversy that echoed across mating, and describing war-related
the scientific community ensued. deaths were discussed, including
Advocates of projects such as the demographic approaches, epide-
Iraq Body Count and studies such miological approaches, multiple
From left: Jay Aronson, taylor seybolt, and Baruch as the World Health Organization systems estimation, random sam-
Fischhoff, organizers of a conference on casualty record-
Iraq Family Health Survey raised ple surveys, repeat interviews, and
ing and estimation in times of conflict
questions about the validity of the complete enumerations through
methods employed and suggested newspaper reports or other quali-
their academic and professional
different approaches. tative records. Candid discussions
fields. Until recently, those diverse
Partly in response to that contro- about each method demonstrated
methods for recording and esti-
versy and partly to understand and both strengths and weaknesses.
mating casualties have not been
develop a scientific consensus on The following three themes
subject to much scrutiny. That
the best approaches for recording seemed to emerge:
changed with the release of two
and estimating casualties, a group
studies published in The Lancet:
of researchers at Carnegie Mellon
No one method is best for
“Mortality Before and After the
University and the University of
recording and/or estimating
2003 Invasion of Iraq: Cluster
Pittsburgh hosted a conference
casualties. In fact, because of the
Sample Survey,” by Les Roberts,
on casualty recording and estima-
myriad situations within which
Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield,
tion in times of conflict. The 30
casualty estimation is sought, a
Jamal Khudhairi, and Gilbert
experts on war-related casualties
‘toolbox’ of methods is required.
Although casualty estimation
has drawn upon many aca-
demic fields, the science of that
estimation is complex enough
to warrant the development of
a unique academic field focused
on its development.
The science of casualty esti-
mation requires far more
development.
The conference organizers plan
to produce a book based on the
presentations given to capture the
methodologies for casualty esti-
mation as they exist now, but they
also want to answer the call for
developing better casualty estima-
tion science in the future.
The convening of this con-
ference represents a strong first
step toward developing a science
for casualty recording and esti-
mation; however, much work
remains and statisticians and
survey methodologists will play a
vital role. n
22 AmstAt News December 2009
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