indigent defense, the conversion of criminal history For 2010, the U.S. Census
records into research databases, and the surveys related Bureau will revise the 2000
to the Prison Rape Elimination Act. He wrapped up DA estimates based on
his presentation by describing the improved and more final 1999 and 2000 birth
user-friendly BJS web site and saying they are looking and death data, then add/
forward to user input on it. subtract births/deaths for
2000–2010. Preliminary
Demographic Analysis for the Census
data on births and deaths for
Victoria Velkoff of the U.S. Census Bureau pointed 2009 and 2010 will be used.
out the long history of demographic analysis (DA) at Previous assumptions about the
the bureau, but said they are working on changes for completeness of birth and death
2010 and looking for feedback. Velkoff also explained data are being reviewed. Population
that the DA estimates are unique among bureau esti- age 65 and above will again be based on Medicare
mates in that they are not based on census counts. She enrollment data, with adjustments made for esti-
said they are important because they provide the first mated under-enrollment.
measures of census coverage. When the 2000 census population count came
Jason Devine, also of the U.S. Census Bureau, in higher than the DA estimate, it led to questions
described DA as one of two methods the bureau uses about erroneous enumerations and the migra-
to measure census coverage. The other is the micro- tion component of the DA estimates. For 2010,
level, survey-based estimates that are based on case- American Community Survey (ACS) data will
by-case record linkages, as in the 2000 Accuracy and contribute to the DA estimates of net international
Coverage Evaluation (ACE). In contrast, DA is a migration. Pending validation, the plan is to esti-
macro-level approach that compares census popula- mate immigration based on ACS data on residence
tion counts with estimates based on administrative one year ago, and foreign-born emigration would be
data. The DA estimates are independent of the cen- estimated with a residual method based on Census
sus counts. The 2010 DA estimates will build on the 2000 and ACS data. Estimates of native migration
2000 DA estimates, not the 2000 census counts. are a challenge and still rely on previous research,
The DA method tracks the size of population but this is a small component. The bureau plans
cohorts based on administrative data. Specifically, a to look at IRS data for this purpose—the thinking
population less than age 65 is estimated with the basic being that native-born persons who emigrate should
demographic accounting equation that adds births, file a return the following April. There also has been
subtracts deaths, adds immigrants, and subtracts emi- talk of a CPS question asking about family mem-
grants. For a population aged 65 and above, the esti- bers who have emigrated, but Velkoff observed that
mates reflect the Medicare count and an estimate of this approach does not seem to work well.
persons not enrolled in Medicare. Velkoff and Devine wrapped up with a review of
DA estimates measure coverage by single year of the 2010 census timeline:
age, but are limited to national level and Black and
non-Black race categories. The U.S. Census Bureau
December 2010: Apportionment data released
is researching the possibility of adding DA estimates
of Hispanic and non-Hispanic, but the limited race/
December 2010: DA estimates of coverage
ethnic data collected in past administrative data
developed
makes this a challenge for older birth cohorts. The
January–March 2011: Redistricting data released
survey-based coverage estimates provide greater race
and geographic detail, but involve their own chal-
on flow basis
lenges. Divine also contrasted the core DA with
2012: Survey-based estimates of coverage
Demographic Benchmark Analysis (DBA), which
released
compares estimates of population and housing against
census counts for various geographic levels.
Devine then presented a number of slides illustrat-
2010 Post-Enumeration Estimates
ing 2000 DA results, such as population by age. The
Using Census Coverage Measurement
DA and census numbers are impressively close, but
Devine pointed out differences—such as self-reported
Vincent Mule of the U.S. Census Bureau stressed
census age spikes for ages ending in 0 and 5w— hile
that the purpose of Census Coverage Measurement
the DA distributions are smooth. Other differences
(CCM) is not to adjust the census counts, but to
include the census undercount of population age 5
estimate the net coverage of the census and the
and its over abundance of persons around age 20.
components of census coverage for housing units
December 2009 AmstAt News 19
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100