COPAFS Corner
COPAFS Focuses on Statistical Activities
stephanie shipp and stephen Cohen, AsA Representatives to COPAFs
The Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics
(COPAFS) is comprised of 60 members, including profes-
sional organizations, businesses, research institutes, and others
interested in federal statistics. As a member of COPAFS, the
ASA has two representatives from the Government Statistics
Section who attend the quarterly meetings and report back
to the ASA membership. Highlights of the September 11,
2009, meeting follow. Detailed minutes can be found at
www.copafs.org.
C
OPAFS Executive Director Ed Spar began
the “index of happiness” considered by some. He
the meeting by saying he would continue
pointed out that BEA staff members are actively
pursuing seminar opportunities. He then
exploring alternatives to the basic GDP. As exam-
directed the audience’s attention to the upcoming
ples, he cited work on measures of economic prog-
FCSM conference, noting almost 300 people have
ress (how people or businesses are doing relative
registered for it already.
to the basic GDP) and described what he called
Next, he mentioned that the next COPAFS
“the issue of sustainability.”
meeting will feature a discussion about the U.S.
Landefeld showed numerous slides illustrating
Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household
alternative measures and the differences suggested
Dynamics (LEHD) program, which is noteworthy
for 2000–2007 and 2008. For example, much of
for its work with synthetic estimates.
the growth in liquid cash income is in supplemental
On budgets, Spar said not much is happening
sources, which would show a much less favorable
and that a continuing resolution appears inevitable.
picture of personal income if removed from the
The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to be exempted
basic measure.
with an anomaly from flat funding, but the continu-
Turning to sustainability, Landefeld described
ing resolution could pose problems for NCHS and
net versus gross measures, including net versus
other agencies. Howard Silver of the Consortium of
gross domestic income and net versus GDP. GDP
Social Science Associations said a process is playing
does not account for depreciation and the invest-
out in which the House takes care of justice and the
ments required for future production. Thus, GDP
Senate takes care of commerce, with the differences
measures do not indicate how sustainable economic
worked out in conference.
activity is over a long period of time. Landefeld pre-
sented a number of graphs to illustrate his point.
GDP and Beyond: Alternative
One was a time series of household net worth and
Measures of the Economic Status of
savings. Savings dropped while net worth increased,
Households and Business largely due to increased housing values and stock
Steven Landefeld from the Bureau of Economic
prices. With perceived wealth, people felt less need
Analysis (BEA) explained that the notion of going
to save, but the phenomenon was not sustainable.
beyond the basic gross domestic product (GDP)
Another graph tracked GDP, profits, and equity
measure dates to the formation of the accounts in
prices. Equity prices experienced dramatic increas-
the 1930s. The concern is that the basic measures
es without corresponding increases in profits and
focus too much on economic transactions without
GDP, so also were not sustainable.
reference to social context. Landefeld described a
Landefeld said BEA’s work on alternative mea-
disconnect between the GDP and what people see
sures comes at a fortuitous time, given popular
as important.
doubts about the value of economics and econo-
Commenting that BEA has been criticized
mists in the wake of the economic downturn.
for dabbling in alternative measures (e.g., green
Economists have been criticized for not foreseeing
GDP), Landefeld said it would not go so far as
the recent economic problems, and Landefeld sees
December 2009 AmstAt News 17
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