P
OFF,S
+ P
OFF, W
< P
ON,S
+ P
ON,W,
my mis-take (or even mistake) of passion that has
led to the current discussion, though I am hoping
but P
OFF,S
> P
ON,S
for forgiveness if the discussion ultimately leads to
That is, even if the program succeeds in attract-
positive outcomes.
ing more students in total, we can still end up
When THURJ invited me to write an op-ed, I
with a population with lower quality compared
said yes immediately even though I was complete-
to the population we would have attracted if the
ly overwhelmed by four courses and many other
program were not in place.
tasks. My passion obviously took over – where else
I have no data on this, and sincerely hope this is
could I find such an opportunity to potentially
NOT true! What I have is a hunch that something
reach all current Harvard undergraduates, espe-
could go wrong and we cannot detect it if we only
cially those who have already decided to stay away
look at the “In” column. But historically, hunches
from statistics?
(or more formally “case studies”) have led to both
The article was initially circulated within
happy and miserable discoveries, when followed
Harvard, but the enthusiasm from readers soon
up by well-designed studies; two cases I used in
encouraged me to make it available more generally.
my Happy/Misery Course are the (Happy) Viagra
I was well aware of the selection bias in what one
Trial and the (Misery) Fen-Phen Study. It is in
tends to hear, but when I read reactions such as the
this spirit that I suggest that we consider the issue
following, I told myself, well, why not let more stu-
of quality when we design further studies on assess-
dents see it?
ing the effectiveness of the AP program. Such stud-
“Just got a chance to read this… it’s
ies are not easy at all, but if there is any profession
fantastic!!! I wish we had a way to circulate
which has the most, and best, experts for design-
it to incoming college freshman all over
ing and conducting them, it must be us. Indeed,
the country—I feel like this piece alone
other professions are paying high consulting fees to
would substantially increase the number
us for conducting these types of assessment studies
of people taking statistics classes!!!”
for them. It would be ironic if we could not engage
our own profession, with the same rigor, to address
Retrospectively, my passion for attracting as many
a problem that is directly about our own future!
students as possible blinded me to a completely obvi-
ous fact, that once an article is printed and especially
Mis-take of Passion?
circulated in general, it will not be read by students
My initial explanation for the lack of acknowledg- only! It simply escaped me that my intended dia-
ing the “turn-off” issue in RPFHS is that they were logue with some Harvard students, that is, “I under-
misled by the non-trivially edited version (with- stand you had a bad AP stat class, but please give
out my knowledge) as printed in Amstat News statistics another try” could be taken as an assertion
(September, 2009), where the quotation marks about the entire AP program. I of course could have
were removed from the aforementioned literal said “Sorry you had a miserable experience, but AP
quotation from a student on AP courses being bor- stat classes worked well for many others” – one
ing. It therefore could be perceived, particularly as can imagine how persuasive that would be. But I
a subtitle, as a depiction of the entire AP statistics should have added a footnote when circulating it to
program. Consequently, RPFHS serves, justifiably, emphasize the intended purpose of mentioning AP
as a defense of the AP program by providing posi- statistics in my op-ed. I therefore thank RPFHS for
tive examples. But after I raised such a possibility, providing this opportunity for me to prevent any
the editor assured me that RPFHS was written as future inappropriate quotations of my two sentences
a reaction to my original op-ed (which contains on AP stat courses. In the same vein, the discussion
five puzzles; see
http://www.amstat.org/publications/ that will appear in the next issue of Amstat News exam-
amsn/2009/september.cfm). ines the issue of potentially mis-citing the study of the
That leaves me wondering if the authors of AP program by ASA and College Board (Patterson,
RPFHS and I have shared a similar type of “mis- 2009; hereafter ASA/CB) in order to prevent us from
take of passion”, that is, when driven by our passion making more mistakes of passion, as surely we would
for wanting to see a particular outcome, we forego all love, and are eager to see, programs such as AP
careful consideration or critical thinking that oth- statistics be a complete success! n
erwise are quite customary to us. The phrase “mis-
take” here is less a criticism of “mistake” but more
an admonishment to ourselves that the human
Editor’s Note: Due to space limitations, Part II will
tendency of “mis-taking” passion in our effort to
appear in the January issue of Amstat News. The
persuade is almost innate. Indeed, in a sense, it is
full piece, however, is available now at http://www.
amstat.org/publications/amsn/2009/december.cfm.
10 AmstAt News December 2009
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