Science Policy News
This month’s guest columnist, Ed Spar, is a regular to Amstat News pages as the author of the Council of
Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) updates. As COPAFS executive director, Spar is well-
versed in the federal statistical system. I’m grateful he accepted my request to write on the health of the federal
statistical agencies with his comments on the ongoing and upcoming challenges for these agencies.
~steve Pierson, AsA Director of science Policy, pierson@amstat.org
Challenges Facing Federal
Statistics in the United States
edward J. spar, executive Director, Council of Professional Associations on Federal statistics
A
re the federal statistical agencies in the
Nonresponse
United States meeting the needs of their
A critical issue being closely monitored is the
many users? Surveys required for policy pur-
declining response rates in key federal surveys that
poses in health, education, labor, and other areas are
measure, for instance, employment, income, con-
being conducted with well-tested statistical designs
sumer expenditures, health, and education. Surveys
that so far have reasonable margins of error. The
that were achieving rates in the middle to high
decennial census, even with an under and over
90% range are now attaining response rates well
count, meets the needs of the Constitution and
below that. Clearly, the continuing decline in non-
thousands of federal, state, and local data users.
response will have serious effects on the usefulness
Measures—including labor force data, gross domes -
of data collected. Either the statistical error will
tic product, the system of national accounts, health,
become so high that estimates will be of limited
education, and income estimates—are covered by
value or, perhaps even worse, the data may lose its
the federal statistical agencies. Estimates of the pop-
value due to biases.
ulation are reasonable, even in situations where high
Clearly, the statistical agencies
immigration and/or internal migration—which
are aware of the problem and much ASA Science
have disproportionate influence—take place. The
research is being conducted to deter-
agencies are sensitive to the need to maintain the
Policy Action
mine, for example, if address-listing
confidentiality of respondents. Based on the above,
techniques can be of use in conjunc-
AsA signs letter in
it sounds as if the federal statistical system is healthy
tion with telephone interviewing.
support of fiscal year
and on track. But what about the future?
Some work has been accomplished
2010 funding for u.s.
Many new problems are facing the statistical
in nonresponse bias, yet much more
agencies, and it will take an enormous effort to
Census bureau, health
is required. The issue of conducting
solve them. Indeed, the agencies are fully aware and
accounts, and National
telephone surveys, given the elimi-
understand there is a need for innovative think-
science Foundation
nation of landlines in favor of cell
ing. An example of the type of innovation that has
phones, also must be addressed.
already taken place is the U.S. Census Bureau’s
American Community Survey. This is a replace-
Data Retrieval
ment for the decennial census long form, and as an
The data retrieval world has been transformed by
ongoing annual survey of about 3 million housing
the web. The concept of charging for governmen-
units, it is unique. The ability to have data avail-
tal data is no longer realistic, given the data user’s
able every year for national, state, and local geog-
assumption that all data online should be free. Also,
raphies is an important step for a dynamic country
search engines such as Google have enabled users to
such as the United States. Another innovative set
retrieve diverse information as an integrated pack-
of data is the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal
age. However, data integration across federal sta-
Employer-Household Employer Dynamic. Using a
tistical agencies is limited. For example, there is no
mathematical model to ensure nondisclosure, data
way to analyze and reconcile the many measures of
are available at local geographic levels.
NOVEMBER 2009 AmstAt News 21
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