Politics
in August that “the situation this Despite a tumultuous year, House
WEAKEST LINKS: SENATE
summer has slipped completely out Democrats say the Obama record has
Seats up for grabs in 2010 with the
of control for President Obama and strengthened their prospects heading
greatest potential for party churn:
congressional Democrats. into next fall. “You may be surprised
“Many veteran congressional elec- to hear this, but I think the past seven
Michael Bennet, D-Colo. His lack of
tion watchers, including Democratic months have helped,” Van Hollen
charisma and liberal voting record are
ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, said. The most important issue in
big factors in this swing state. with a consensus forming that the 2010 will be the economy, he said,
chances of Democratic losses going and while the country’s economic
Robert Bennett, R-Utah Bennett, a
higher than 20 seats is just as good climate is still dire, the situation has
moderate in a conservative state,
as the chances of Democratic losses improved dramatically over the past
faces a strong GOP primary challenge going lower than 20 seats.” eight months.
that could knock him off.
Sabato, the UVA political science “That’s due to a number of factors,
professor, is even more bullish on but a big part of it was the economic
Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. The liberal GOP gains in the House. “It now stimulus plan, and Republicans made
fi rebrand could face a strong threat
appears that Republicans will make a big mistake in aligning themselves
from former Hewlett Packard CEO
above-average gains in the U.S. against the bill,” he said. “These guys
Carly Fiorina, a Republican who could
spend her own fortune to win the seat.
House of at least plus-23 seats,” he were rooting for failure,” he added.
tweeted recently, noting that the aver- “It’s very cynical to campaign on the
age shift for fi rst midterm elections ‘bad news for America is good news
Richard Burr, R-N.C. Burr could be
is 17 House seats. for Republicans,’ but that’s what they
running scared in Democrat-trending
North Carolina — if Democrats can
In a guest column on Sabato’s did. They’ve become the great cham-
fi nd a viable challenger.
Web site, Alan Abramowitz, a pions of the status quo.”
political science professor at Emory But Repub licans are crafting a
Chris Dodd, D-Conn. Probably the
University, described a “worst-case response that seeks to target voter
most vulnerable incumbent in 2010,
scenario” for Democrats, who, if anxiety about growing federal bud-
Dodd already trails his GOP
Obama’s approval rating sinks into get defi cits and Wall Street bailouts
challenger by double digits. the low 40s next year, could lose 41 that many believe haven’t ended the
House seats and, possibly, control of recession or Main Street’s troubles.
Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y. She has
the speaker’s gavel. “People have a right to be angry,”
worked hard to unite Democrats On the other hand, if Obama’s said Blunt, the seven-term congress-
behind her. Now it’s the Republicans
approval rating rebounds into the man from southwestern Missouri
she has to worry about.
mid-60s, the GOP would be expected and the state’s likely GOP Senate
to lose one seat in the Senate and nominee. “The government has
Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark. Democrats gain only 15 seats in the House. rewarded those on Wall Street and
just gave Lincoln a plum committee
Based on the current landscape, he elsewhere who helped create this cri-
gavel to help her hold on in 2010. Will
predicts Republicans will gain one sis, while those of us who played by
it be enough?
Senate seat and 23 House seats. the rules are left to pick up the pieces
and pay the bills. There’s been a clear
Harry Reid, D-Nev. Early polls show
B
ut while some sanguine Repub- lack of responsibility and account-
the Senate majority leader trailing
little-known GOP challengers in the
licans eyeing a repeat of the 1994 ability and that hasn’t changed.”
swing state of Nevada. Will his money
“revolution” that swept them back Sessions, the House GOP cam-
be enough to save him?
into the speaker’s chair after 40 years, paign chairman, was even more
there are still big differences between blunt than, well, Blunt: “Someone
Arlen Specter, D-Pa. The Republican-
that election and 2010. Of the 31 open has to stop this reckless agenda in
turned-Democrat faces a number of
House seats Democrats were defend- Washington before our children and
threats, in both the primary and the ing 16 years ago, Republicans picked grandchildren are forced to pay the
general elections. up 23 of them — about 40 percent price for these mistakes. Republican
of the GOP’s total pickups that year. candidates throughout the country
David Vitter, R-La. Democrats found a
Only seven House Democrats are offering that fresh alternative.”
strong candidate to challenge Vitter in to date have announced they’re Sessions said the two economic
his fi rst re-election bid since
not running for re-election — indicators that will most heavily
admitting he cheated on his wife.
E
S
with all but three of them repre- infl uence the midterms are unem-
G
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Continued on next page
senting safe Democratic districts. ployment and the federal budget
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