26 EconoMic trEnds by José I. Duarte
Population
TABLE 1 - Population growth Demography is often looked at as the
Male female
poor relative of the social sciences.
10
3
Seldom, if at all, we see proposals
600
for social and economic policies or
urban planning that are underpinned
by sound analysis of demographic
500
trends. but these are relevant not only
for the answers they may provide, but
also – which is arguably as if not more
400 important – for the questions they
raise. It can probably be said, with
some confidence, that when Macau’s
300
economic boom started, one had only
to look into the demographic changes
it implies to be able to anticipate most
200
of the social and economic stresses
we have witnessed. Table 1, reflects
the growth of the population in the
100
last 25 years – it has doubled. In the
period the population has grown,
0
but the major addition of area was
Cotai, a non residential area. as
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
a consequence, an already very
crowded place had to accommodate
“another city” within mostly the
same confines, give or take a bit.
The consequences on congestion,
infrastructure, environment and prices
were inevitable, as no one could fail to
TABLE 2 - Labour Force Gender ratio (% female)
foresee. and the associated changes
femrate
in the ratio between locals and non
residents had an obvious potential for
0.53
tension, which is especially visible in
the labour market.
another important trend that deserves
more attention is the reversal of
the growing feminization of the
0.52
population. as you will notice in Table
2, the female share of the population
has increased steadily throughout
the period – not anymore. Note, in
0.51
particular, that from its peak in 2004,
that ratio went back, in 2007, to the
level is had in 1986. That is, the
change recorded in 18 years was
undone in just three. In demographic
0.5 terms, that’s very fast.
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
another basic dimension of the
demographic changes, with a special
relevance for social policies and the
functioning of the labour market, is
the age structure. The trends raise
important issues again. Note that the
outlook for the “local” replenishment
TABLE 3 - Age classes
of the labour force ranks is dim.
The share of the youngest in the
population is declining fast. The oldest
<15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 >65
120
ranks are growing equally fast. The
positive developments are in classes
of age corresponding to the first half
100
of the productive life of workers. but
then again, those have grown mainly
80
through migration flows and are
therefore, the segments less attached
to the local community. Something
60
to think about when we discuss
what Macau can achieve in the next
40
10 years and which should be the
appropriate policy measures aiming at
20 a sustained development and welfare.
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
february 2009
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