24 EconoMY
this stage in the international economic
cycle, I don’t think the US dollar will
depreciate further. europe faces wors-
ening economic circumstances. The
euro’s banking rates should fall, bring-
ing with them an adjustment of the cur-
rency to a lower value when compared
to the dollar. As such, the pataca comes
out stronger.’’
This all means that in practical
terms, it will be easier to save money.
“Portuguese living in Macau and re-
ceiving their wages in patacas who are
thinking of returning home will, basical-
ly, be able to save more in euros towards
their retirement,’’ Martins adds.
Looking inwardly, a stronger pataca
equals fewer exports. This when, notes
the economist: “The quantity of exports
is dropping and is lower than it was in
1998. However, the cost of imports from
the mainland will decrease and residents
will be able to buy products,’’ he says.
Drop in China exports
A banking sector analyst who opt-
ed for anonymity, shares this forecast:
“There appears to be a consensus in the
E
L
B
international markets on the inversion in
Z
U
the devaluation trend of the dollar (US).

A
O
Inflation is below the projections done by
I
E
G
/
D
the european Central Bank (eCB),’’ he
P
A
says.
: E
The difference in the euro’s banking
T
O
O
H
rates comparatively to the north-Amer-
P
ican currency is of 2.25 percent against
Euro rates cut
about one percent: “This tendency fa-
vours the euro but tends to change as the
eCB lowers the banking rates (of eu-
rope’s unified currency) to fight the cri-
as yuan stagnates
sis,’’ adds the banking analyst.
Asian currencies, such as the yuan,
that gained ground against the US dol-
lar, may face a turnaround and the global
Experts say the pataca will gain in strength
decrease in economic growth may cause
the level of exports from emerging econ-
as it piggybacks on the US Dollar
omies to more advanced ones to drop,
bringing about a devaluation of those
T
he first year of administration the major Asian currencies. currencies against the dollar.
under Barack Obama should be In June last year, the value of the lo- For Macau residents, adds Henry
marked by the appreciation of the cal tender, when compared to the euro, Lei, the relationship between the pataca
US dollar. reached 13 patacas in the inter-banking and the yuan is of more relevance than
This inversion in currency trends is market – recently it neared the 10.9 that of its link to the US dollar.
good news for Macau. It is highly like- mark. “I don’t anticipate serious fluctua-
ly that the pataca (indexed to the Hong tions for the pataca or the Hong Kong
Kong dollar, which in turn is indexed to Easier to save dollar. Now, the yuan should stabilize in
the US dollar) will get stronger. the next two years from its rapid growth
It will also benefit from cuts in the All the signs point to this trend during the first quarter of 2008,’’ says the
euro’s banking rates and fluctuations of says economist Albano Martins: “At UMAC academic.
february 2009
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