20 EconoMY
Crisis, what crisis?
2009 promises to be better than the last, say economists as residents will pay less
for basic goods, inflation will decrease, the pataca will become stronger and it will
be easier to buy a house. The Year of the Ox will breathe new life into the economy
by Sónia Nunes
I
n real terms, Macau people should have more money in rates in euros, people putting money aside for their return to
their pockets this year as the rate of inflation, which reached europe, may see their little nest egg grow.
8.8 percent in first eleven months of 2008, will decrease The analysts’ forecast for 2009 is complete, and during the
substantially in line with a strengthening pataca. second half of the year the economy will recuperate.
With the slowing down of the yuan, goods imported to the The reduction in the cost of fuel and drop in the real estate
territory will be cheaper and, taking the cuts in the banking prices are already signs of a decrease in the Consumer Price
Index (CPI).
Pay less
“According to our data, inflation will decrease and residents
will pay less,’’ says economist Albano Martins who is waiting
to see how wage levels will follow.
A study by consultancy firm HR Business Solutions sug-
gests that base salaries in Macau should register an average in-
crease of 3.1 percent. These numbers don’t convince Albano
Martins.
“I strongly doubt it. Most of the local companies adjust
wages according to the inflation rate registered the previous
year, which, in 2008, was 8.8 percent,’’ says Martins.
During the first few months of last year there was an in-
crease of 8.4 percent in the CPI (the main gauge of the infla-
tion rate) when compared to the same period in 2007. There
are three motives that have led the economist to believe that the
residents will be able to keep more money in their pockets.
Co-ordinator of the economy and Finances degrees at the
University of Macau, Henry Lei says: “First of all, we’re wit-
nessing, on a global level, an adjustment in the price of raw
materials, such as crude oil. And, in Macau, the drop in the
number of tourists due to a restrictive policy by the central gov-
ernment, may help stop the rise in prices. With the suspension
of work [at the Venetian] on the Cotai Strip, many workers have
returned home.’’
Triple trio
These three factors are already producing practical results,
translating into the prices of housing and food. According to
the latest data from the Statistic and Census Bureau, the CPI
decreased 0.5 percent in November 2008 when compared to
October the previous year.
The most significant drops occurred in the transport sec-
tor, 2.59 percent, housing and fuels, 1.03 percent and food
0.63 percent.
The reductions are linked to a decrease in the price of pet-
rol and liquified petrolium gas (LPG), as well as in the prices of
fresh fish and farm produce. Most of the basic goods arriving
in Macau are imported from the mainland – and the expect-
ed stagnation of the yuan should also help alleviate end of the
month expenses.
february 2009
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