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to the long-established summer habit of light winds and flat water. What they got was unseasonal heavy northwesterlies, nasty waves and the humiliation of a litany of breakages. In the opening race the crew had to resort to frantic bailing with a plastic bucket to stay afloat. They lost the Match 5-0. Compiling their Barcelona weather assumptions, team meteorol-
ogists have analysed a multitude of historical data sources, including PredictWind. ‘We spent a lot of time and money averaging climate data for the past 10 years,’ says Bilger. ‘You can look at Barcelona’s figures month by month and see wind strength and direction trends, wave patterns, sea and air temperatures and so on.’ But averages are averages – the weather’s the weather and, as
financial advisers always emphasise, ‘past performance is no guar- antee of future results’. Bilger has painful experience of this. When Alinghi was searching for a suitable venue for its 2007 Cup defence Valencia was selected on the basis of its ‘reliable weather conditions’. As it happened, the weather for the challenger series was totally contrary. ‘We copped a lot of flak,’ Bilger recalls ruefully. ‘Statistically you could say 99 per cent of the time the weather would follow the pattern, but that particular year it was completely different.’
top speeds in a straight line, or lowest lap time in 8-10kt of breeze? All the trade-offs have to be considered.’ During the racing equipment selection continues to play a vital
role. Five days before each stage of the regatta the teams must measure in their foil and rudder selections – including foil arm stocks, wings and flaps – and must retain their declared configu- ration for the duration of that stage. Again good weather data and skilful forecasting have a critical impact on these decisions. In the nearly two decades since venturing out with a small
start-up operation comprising Bilger and a marketing assistant, PredictWind has grown to a sizeable enterprise with a million users worldwide, an expanding base of subscribers and a workforce of 40 – mostly based in New Zealand and almost all active sailors, several with Olympic, America’s Cup or Volvo Ocean Race experience. Its suite of related products and services continues to grow in
performance and technical sophistication, including the adoption of artificial intelligence. Just before the Marseille Olympics, for example, the company launched Predictiveness, which tracks global tidal currents to a resolution of 100m. ‘The feedback from the Olympics was very good,’ says Bilger. ‘Although the tidal range in Marseille is only about 200mm you could see the currents and eddies working around the coast and how the laylines would change on the race- course. It was definitely an advantage for our competitors. ‘Our users are predominantly on the water,’ he adds, ‘but we get
people using the app for all sorts of things including pouring concrete on construction sites, planting crops, even seeding golf courses. After the big earthquake in Japan we had a huge spike in usage with people worrying about the dispersal of nuclear radiation. Weather affects just about everything.’ Ivor Wilkins
Marcus Blackmore’s latest Hooligan gets away to a flying start by winning its debut race at the 2024 Geelong Festival of Sail, followed by a string of other big regatta wins. Designed by Botín, Hooligan was the last boat to be built by SailGP Technologies in New Zealand before the entire operation was moved to the UK
Judging by comments immediately after the Preliminary Regatta
in Barcelona, teams have clearly still adopted a narrow slant on their design assumptions, despite the experiences of Auckland 2003 and Valencia 2007. American Magic’s Terry Hutchinson talks about the subtle differences between the boats providing clues to their weather expectations. Terry also noted how his own team’s performance lit up on the final day, which dished up a mix of light winds and sizeable wave chop – the conditions expected to prevail from September on. ‘Those are the conditions we have been working towards and optimising towards,’ he said. Alinghi Red Bull Racing coach Pietro Sibello also spoke of a
September change and hinted that their design was predicated on a quite narrow set of weather conditions. ‘For sure, there may be a team that is good enough to have a wider window, but let’s see,’ he said. Emirates Team NZ CEO, Grant Dalton, said the AC75s were so
‘highly strung’ that they would have very specific performance sweet spots. ‘You can’t be good in all conditions,’ he said. ‘You can’t go fast in a breeze and in the light.’ But, he implied, you have to pick one or the other. ‘If you want to be a middleman you’re nowhere.’ Placing their bets for Barcelona, it seems there is little consensus
on weather assumptions. Analysis of the various race foils, for example, shows a disparity between high-lift/high-drag, or high- cavitation/low-drag configurations. Plus all stops in between. ‘It depends on what you are optimising for,’ said Emirates TNZ
design chief Dan Bernasconi when the race packages were first revealed. ‘Are you optimising for early take-off in light winds, highest
28 SEAHORSE
AUSTRALIA Hooligan and Marcus Blackmore What kicked it all off was I started sailing in Brisbane where I was born, with a mate called Bruce Robinson. He had a Gwen 12 and asked me along. I only did it once – as I spent more time swimming! So that went on the back burner for a while. Soon after I was conscripted into the army and served in Vietnam,
and during that time my parents moved to Sydney. My father believed that the company Blackmores needed to be more central. So I moved back home after the army, and started sailing with my friend John Biffin on his Duncanson 35. I bought my own first boat from Bob Oatley, a Nantucket 43 that
was a Peter Cole design. The biggest learning I had from that boat is that as they always tell you your first boat is the one you enjoy the most! But I also sailed a lot with Arthur Bloore on Hammer of Queensland – the biggest raceboat in Queensland – and raced plenty of Hobarts as his navigator. I took my own boat to Hobart too a couple of times, but that was an expensive exercise and I didn’t have much money back then. I was asked recently how many boats I have had – and I am not really sure. We got up to 26 and stopped counting. And I think we missed a few… I spent a lot of time in the Farr 40s, keeping one overseas for
a while. How that happened was an Admiral’s Cup was coming up and Charles Curren funded the Big Fella (Iain Murray) to build the Sydney 60 and wanted me to buy a Sydney 40. That prompted me to look around but I decided the Farr 40 was a better proposition: quick, responsive with lots of good competition. Prior to that I had a Mumm 36 called Emotional Hooligan. Over a number of boats we dropped the first bit and stuck with Hooligan. It’s better for us! The camaraderie in the Farr 40 class was fantastic – I still have
mates from those days. I sponsored Kay Cottee for her solo round- the-world voyage and when she got back from her 183 days at sea she gave me her red ensign and promptly became an artist. I was president of the Farr 40s here and I had to organise the trophies for the Farr 40 Nationals; she did a sculpture of the thinking man, so I put it on a timber base and put a plaque on it – then I won it myself! What was important with the Farr 40s was we realised that in a one-design class – or a box rule like the TP52 – there are always
SALTY DINGO
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