Map source credit:
www.traverssmith.com
Trade agreement in effect
Trade agreement being negotiated (but not in effect)
Custom arrangement but no trade agreement
The main disagreements appear
to centre on freedom of access for UK financial and other services, and the tricky issue of liberalising visas for Indian students at a time when immigration is a controversial issue in Britain. Problems over the high costs of Indian professionals on short-term assignments in the UK appear to have been settled.
THE GCC AND THE UK Aside from India, Britain’s other continuing negotiations over an FTA are focused on the six GCC states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The fourth round of negotiations took place over the summer in London with a draft treaty text being “advanced across the majority of chapters,” according to a British government spokesperson, who pointed out that the GCC was equivalent to the UK’s seventh largest export market with total trade worth £61.3
billion last year. “An FTA will be a substantial economic opportunity and a significant moment in the UK-GCC relationship,” the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) stated. “Government analysis shows that, in the long run, a deal with the GCC is expected to increase trade by at least 16%.” But aside from the GCC and
“ AN FTA WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND A SIGNIFICANT MOMENT IN THE UK-GCC RELATIONSHIP.”
DEPARTMENT FOR BUSINESS AND TRADE (DBT)
24
India – and talks aimed at bolstering existing carry-over deals – a recent report from the London think- tank, the Institute for Government, suggested future UK trade policy would not be centred on FTAs. “For one thing,” said the institute, “the UK has already secured deals with most of its major trading partners; the US and China are the only two countries in the UK’s top 25 export markets with which the UK neither has, nor is negotiating, an FTA. Neither of those gaps is likely to be filled in the near future, given the state of US domestic politics and growing geopolitical tensions.” Instead, the report said it was likely that the DBT’s focus would switch to a trade policy increasingly dominated by foreign policy and security considerations, driven by Downing Street’s political priorities. “On the ground,” added the
report, “DBT officials will need a sharper focus on helping individual UK businesses to deal with specific obstacles to exporting. For example, they can play a useful role
in
negotiating with partner countries to remove or reduce the impact of specific trade barriers; help UK businesses to make use of the trade
agreements that have already been signed, and thereby drive up their utilisation rates; promote exports through visits, trade fairs and other activities; and monitor partner countries’ compliance with their obligations under FTAs and World Trade Organisation agreements, so they can take action against them if they default.” And then, of course, there is
the UK’s relationship with the European Union, with British exporters still blaming Brexit for the loss of opportunities with the nation’s largest trading partner. The latest polling by YouGov revealed growing support among the public for a second Brexit referendum on EU membership. Nearly half of Britons favoured a new vote in the next ten years, with 26% wanting one this year. And about a fifth of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 now favoured a new referendum. Given the prevailing political
climate in the UK, such a referendum stands no chance of being staged, despite the fact exporters would love to re-establish EU ties. But, at least the opportunities in deals with the likes of India, the CPTPP and the Gulf states offer hope for the future. As Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch said during a trip to India last month: “India is the UK’s second biggest source of investment projects and I’m confident this new campaign will help boost interest in and demand for UK goods and services even further.” That, at least, sounded more plausible than the 2019 election pledge.
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