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Above: President Donald J. Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, joined by members of their delegations at the G7 Summit in France.
four, five times” increase in transatlantic trade. The UK’s International Trade Secretary Liz Truss sounds
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quietly confident, too. “Negotiating and signing exciting new free trade agreements is my top priority – and none more important than with the United States. We are fast-tracking these deals and making sure British businesses are ready to trade so they can take advantage of the golden opportunities ahead,” she says. Others, though, have sounded a more cautious note. “A deal
with the US is not going to be done in a trice. The US are very tough negotiators and we will also have to be very tough.” Who said so? None other than Boris Johnson, a few days before he became Prime Minister in late July.
PRE-BREXIT TRADE PREPARATIONS Of course, no deal can be done until the UK leaves the European Union (EU) at the end of October, but some low-key steps have already been taken to strengthen the Anglo-American trading relationship. In February, a mutual recognition agreement (MRA) was sealed between the US and UK, This rolls over aspects of a US- EU MRA, covering areas such as telecommunications equipment and pharmaceutical manufacturing practice. Additionally, there has been an agreement on derivatives and insurance trading, which would take effect in the event of a no-deal Brexit or at the end of any transition period agreed between the UK and EU. On a wider free trade agreement (FTA) between the two
nations, negotiations have been going on at a fairly subdued level for the past two years, but “have failed to show any meaningful progress and are considered to be deadlocked,” says Sophie Berner-Eyde, a Brussels-based associate of US law firm Kelley
n answer to the question, what are the chances of a US- UK trade deal? President Donald Trump reckons “very substantial” talks are already underway and enthuses about the possibility of a post-Brexit deal leading to a “three to
Drye and Warren. “Should the UK leave the EU without a deal at the end of October, World Trade Organisation terms would govern US-UK trade until such time as a trade deal is agreed,” she adds. “Much hinges on the UK’s post-Brexit trading relationship
with the EU, which still remains a priority for the UK. As Boris Johnson pursues hard-line rhetoric on Brexit, insisting both that the current EU-UK deal needs to be renegotiated – which EU leaders reject – and that the UK will leave the EU on the scheduled date of October 31, with or without a deal, it is difficult to predict how the UK-EU trading relationship will unfold in the coming months. As of now, however, the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner: total UK trade in goods and services with EU countries in 2017 was $788 billion, whereas two-way trade between the UK and the US in the same year totalled about one third this amount, at $236 billion,” says Berner-Eyde.
POSITIVE SIGNS FOR A UK-US DEAL There is, however, some real enthusiasm in Washington for a deal – and not just from Mr Trump. In August, 45 Republican senators signed a letter delivered to the British embassy, expressing their wholehearted support for a trade deal regardless of whether or not the UK seals a new trade pact with Brussels. The signatories, including James Risch, chairman of the Senate
foreign relations committee, said they would “support whatever course Britain takes”, adding: “If Britain leaves the EU with no deal, we will work with our administration, your government and our friends in the EU to minimise disruptions in critical matters such as international air travel, financial transactions and the shipment of medicine, food and other vital supplies. We will also advocate for a new bilateral trade agreement, as early as your Brexit terms would allow, that reflects the centuries of open commerce between our nations.” ➲
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