News | Industry Updates Food-to-go market recovering faster than expected

However, recovery is not consistent

In its latest channel forecasts for the food- to-go sector, IGD – providers of foresight and insight for the food and consumer goods industry – predicts that the channel will be worth £15.6bn at the end of 2021, which is 82.5% of its 2019 value. It is forecast to return to its pre-Covid

levels in the second half of 2022, six months earlier than expected. Nicola Knight, senior analyst for Food-

to-Go and author of the forecasts explains: “This is a better-than-expected result, so is really positive news for the sector; by 2026, the market will be worth £22.7bn which is 20.5% more than 2019. This will be the outcome of five years of growth at above pre-pandemic levels, following significant contraction in 2020, and will predominantly be driven by foodservice operators.”

COVID-19 guidance update

The Vending & Automated Retail Association (AVA) has reminded its members about the changes to the COVID-19 guidance and restrictions across the UK as of 16 August. Changes to self-isolation rules in England

and Northern Ireland have now started. This means fewer people will have to quarantine if they have been in close contact with someone with COVID-19. Similar rules are already in force in Scotland and Wales. Guidance on Test and Trace in the workplace can be found at trace-workplace-guidance. Those who still legally have to self-isolate

under the new rules may be eligible for a £500 Test and Trace Support Payment. The AVA said as people return to work

both in offices and client's premises, there have been a number of changes to guidance for working safely issued by Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS). Find out more at safely-during-covid-19 Advice from the Department for Transport

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across sub-sectors. Foodservice food-to- go operators – quick service restaurants (QSR) in particular – have been the main driver of the growth, increasing market share from 77% in 2019 to 79% in 2021. Covid restrictions have played a significant role, predominantly due to consumers suffering from cooking fatigue and opting for affordable treats, which has in-turn benefitted “destination” food-to-go sites. Ms Knight continued: “To survive and

meet new demand, operators have fast- forwarded innovation at an unprecedented speed. Delivery, digital and proposition development have placed survivors in a good position to maintain momentum as restrictions ease. But it’s important to note that QSRs, coffee shops and food-to-go outlets may experience a dip in sales growth in the second half of this year, as consumers have more choice on where and how to spend their money.” In retail, the share of the food-to-go

market is forecast to reduce to 21% in 2021 from 24% in 2019. This will gradually increase to 23% by 2026 as momentum

starts to return to retail food-to-go. Ms Knight explained: “In 2021,

retailers have faced increased competition from foodservice operators who adapted quickly to changing consumer habits and demands. And, due to the decrease in demand and shift in shopping habits, retailers reallocated space to other categories. While larger stores have benefitted from consolidated shopping missions, smaller stores have experienced a greater dip in sales but, conversely, are likely to recover more quickly as some pre-pandemic behaviours return. “New product launches and major

projects that were delayed due to the pandemic are now beginning to appear in stores. The challenge for retailers now is whether they can close the gap in market share. It will depend on how far consumers return to pre-COVID habits and how fast retailers adapt to changes in behaviour that stick.” The annual Food-to-Go forecast report

from IGD examines in detail the outlook by sector for: QSR, coffee shops, food-to-go specialists, supermarkets/hypermarkets, and convenience, forecourts & other retailers.

(DoT) for those who work in or from vehicles can be found at ns/coronavirus-covid-19-safer-transport-

guidance-for-operators Care Homes: For any professionals

visiting a care home indoors, such as tradespeople, access will be allowed to those who can demonstrate evidence of having had a complete course of an authorised COVID-19 vaccine (or evidence that they are exempt from vaccination). Many of the grants, loans and financial support provided by Government are

starting to fall due or are due to change. Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme: the

proportion of salary/furlough payment made by the employer is changing as the scheme draws to a close in September. Full

detail can be found in an HMRC video at

99dmE VAT Reduction: The AVA fought hard to

ensure that vending was included in the reduction of VAT from 20% to 5% in the hospitality sector - to the financial benefit of members. The VAT level changes to 12.5% from 30 September until 30 April, 2022. Details from HMRC can be found at Bounce Back Loans: Those AVA members who took advantage of the BBLS as it was launched will be approaching the end of the interest-free first period – and hopefully preparing a payback plan. HMRC also agreed a deferral option for

VAT payments due to coronavirus – with payments due from 30 June 2020.

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