Onshore
The Tolo 1 wind farm in Indonesia possesses 20 of the largest wind turbines in the country – standing at 133m in height with 64m blades – constructed by Siemens Gamesa and Vena Energy.
technology that can help them realise that commitment. So, the growth projections in the medium to long term are really good.” To cite just a few examples, China is aiming to have
emissions peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It hopes to have 1.2TW of wind and solar in its energy mix by the end of the decade. The US wants to achieve 80% clean power by 2030, while the EU is aiming to reach net zero by 2050. Regarding onshore wind specifically, a number of countries recently stepped up their 2030 targets. The UK has drawn up plans for a target of 30GW, while Germany is eyeing an impressive 115GW. The latter is aiming to derive all its energy from renewable sources by 2035. Corporations are making their own decarbonisation commitments too. In the US in particular, this often translates to procuring energy directly from wind developers. Between 2015 and 2020, the private sector accounted for more than 20% of all new US wind installations. “Renewable energy remains a key solution to the challenge of decarbonising economies, and installations of wind turbines are expected to grow strongly to meet demand,” notes Mancino. “In addition, countries seeking to develop an energy supply independent of geopolitical disruption are increasingly looking to renewable sources of energy such as wind.” He adds that the onshore sector will remain critical to Siemens Gamesa’s business model and will provide huge growth opportunities globally – after all, it accounts for a large majority of the capacity installations that are forecast for the years ahead.
CO2
Increase projects, simplify permitting That said, he feels the wind industry is facing headwinds that it must overcome in order to create a sustainable industry. These go beyond the present supply chain crisis.
“In Europe, we need to increase market volumes rapidly,” says Mancino. “To meet EU targets for 2030,
World Wind Technology /
www.worldwind-technology.com
we need to build 30GW of new wind capacity every year, and yet in 2021 we only built 11GW. Unless we drive up the volume of permitted projects, we will place unsustainable cost pressure on manufacturers and suppliers. And unless we simplify and standardise permitting processes at a national level, we will fail to deliver on renewable energy targets.” On top of that, Mancino believes the EU needs to redouble its focus on infrastructure and get better at rewarding the value of wind in auction design. “These factors together will help us create a healthy and sustainable wind industry in Europe that is capable of meeting the accelerated ambitions required to meet climate goals,” he says. For the time being, surviving as a turbine maker may entail a shift in strategic focus. Barla points out that many OEMs are now focusing on geographic expansion, with a view to targeting their services towards the markets with most demand. They are also shutting down factories in high-cost locations, and opening new hubs elsewhere.
“Over the past three or four years, you can clearly see a supply chain migration,” says Barla. “Most of the factories in northern Europe have been shut down – Siemens has closed factories in Denmark, and Nordex is closing a plant in Germany. These are good examples of how companies are trying to shut down manufacturing in high-cost markets, then switching into markets like Mexico, southern Europe or India.”
Metcalfe believes that, while there is every reason for optimism over the longer term, the months ahead will simply be about trying to ride out the current crisis. “For many wind supply chain companies at the moment, it’s about delivering projects as efficiently as possible and shifting some of that risk onto their customers,” he says. “The potential is there for explosive growth, if countries start making good on their net zero commitments. But there’s short-term pain, and short-term survival is on the agenda.” ●
11GW
The new wind capacity built in Europe in 2021. Wind Europe
27
Bernd Zillich/
Shutterstock.com
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