Offshore
While onshore turbines have to factor in certain restrictions that limit their size – public opinion, for one, which frequently opposes local wind farm development – offshore turbines are largely free of these concerns. At the same time, wind levels are generally higher out at sea, due to the lack of friction over the water. On land, mountains, trees and buildings all serve to break up the wind flow. As a result, the biggest turbines are sent out to sea – due to their size, they can harness the high wind levels and produce more electricity than their onshore counterparts. Of course, you’ve first got to get the turbines shipped out and installed at sea, and as offshore turbines continue to grow, this is starting to pose a problem. Most offshore turbines are installed using wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs), and back in 2020, there were only 16 WTIVs serving the entire world. Now that turbine sizes are growing, however, many of these vessels will need to be upgraded or operators will have to invest in new ones, if they are going to be able to install the super-sized turbines that will become the norm by the end of the decade.
A matter of size
According to research published by Rystad Energy in February 2022, the demand for offshore wind turbines will outpace the supply of WTIVs capable of handling these new, larger turbines by 2024. Between 2010 and 2021, turbines with 8MW capacity or higher accounted for just 3% of global installations, but that figure is expected to rise to 53% by 2030. To meet this demand, the need for WTIVs that can handle turbines of this size – and also carry out heavy maintenance and repairs of the installed base of turbines – will rise from 11 vessel years in 2021 to almost 60–65 by 2030, not accounting for the demand in China. With all this in mind, its no surprise that the industry is starting to express concern, as this issue could cause a bottleneck for upcoming offshore wind projects. “There is not enough capacity to meet the targets within the target date set at the moment. There is still time for new builds to be added to achieve this. Otherwise projects would face delays,” says Martin Lysne, senior analyst for rigs and vessels at Rystad Energy. To date, there haven’t been many purpose- built vessels constructed for the explicit purpose of wind turbine installation, because there has been an existing fleet of heavy lift vessels already in place. However, as these turbines grow larger, they will require very tall cranes in order to be installed, and there currently aren’t any vessels with cranes at the height that will be required in the next few years. This hesitancy over constructing more WTIVs largely stems from a lack of knowledge over what turbine sizes will look like in the next few years – turbine installation operators have been hesitant to commission ships that are obsolete by the time they finish production. As a result, WTIV numbers have remained largely stagnant.
World Wind Technology /
www.worldwind-technology.com
Now, however, a much clearer pipeline is coming into focus due to governments setting firm targets and an increased efficiency in leasing processes, which has resulted in more grants for wind farms. As a result, some new-build vessels have recently begun construction – 11 will be built by 2025, all of which will be capable of carrying turbines with over 14MW capacity, according to IHS Market. However, if more vessels aren’t commissioned to meet upcoming demand, the offshore wind industry will have to deal with project delays across the board. This will have a knock-on effect, increasing the time required for governing bodies to reach their wind power targets. A recent Rystad Energy report expects global offshore wind capacity to grow by more than five-fold between 2021–2030. Europe intends to install around 100GW of new offshore wind capacity by 2030, while the US are aiming for 30GW in the same period, but they’ll need the WTIVs to meet those targets. “There are new builds, but they’re not enough new builds – so, we need more,” says Lysne. That’s where things start to get challenging, as it’s difficult to put an exact number to the issue. Certainly, if countries intend to hit their green energy targets by 2030, many more WTIVs will be required. However, if these targets are drawn out a little further, in the years after 2030, then fewer vessels will be needed. How important, then, is it to the stakeholders involved to hit those targets? At the same time, there is a growing awareness that, beyond WTIVs, the industry doesn’t have the manpower it needs in terms of operators, engineers, mariners and other personnel to deal with the increasing wind turbine sizes.
“Here at Rystad, people say we’re not as optimistic as others out there,” says Lysne. “But we look through each and every project, and then we determine [whether] this will be able to get done or not. Our target for the US by 2030 is 21GW, while many others are saying 30GW – because that’s the goal. We’re saying we don’t think this is feasible – [the US] will be able to reach the targets, [but] it will take some more time.”
Prepare for the future
The industry is, in some areas, starting to plan ahead for the growth of offshore turbines. The first 10MW turbine was only installed off the coast of Europe in December 2021 – in the form of a Vestas’ V164-10.0 MW turbine at 1.1GW Seagreen, Scotland’s largest and the world’s deepest fixed-bottom offshore wind farm. However, WTIV operators are already building cranes that will be ready to handle 20MW turbines – of course, there are currently no projects lined up at that size. These larger vessels will also be more efficient at installing smaller turbines, as they will be able to carry more components back and forth than previous models due to their larger deck space. “So, although they will be bigger and more expensive, I think they will be more efficient at installing the current generation
Opposite: A WTIV using stilts to elevate it above sea level in order to construct offshore wind turbines.
3%
Of global wind turbine installation had a capacity of 8MW or higher between 2010–2021.
53%
Of global wind turbine installations will have a capacity of 8MW or higher by 2030.
Rystad Energy 15
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45
