Command & control
Submarine procurement: final result Country
US
Australia China Russia India
Source: GlobalData
light of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the shift in focus towards a state-on-state ground war and the mobilisation of a wartime economy. It is thought that up to 40% of Russia’s economy is now directly focused on defence matters, as Moscow seeks to reassert its old spheres of influence around its borders. Pre-invasion budgets from 2022 indicate that the country’s defence budget was originally slated to value $43.1bn in that year and anticipated to be trimmed down to $41.2bn in 2023, before following a relatively flat trend to reach $44.1bn in 2027. However, the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine eventually culminated in the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As such the Russian government opted to scrap previous plans to trim down defence spending, boosting it to $48.6bn in 2021, which was higher than the previous planned budget of $42.3bn for the same year. The subsequent 2022 defence budget was determined to be in line with this trend, increasing from the previous $43.5bn to $47.3bn. Despite the opaque nature of current spending in light of the Ukraine-Russia war, according to 2024 data Moscow is forecast to spend nearly $35.5bn over the next ten years on submarine procurement, a sizeable portion of its budget. Although the Ukraine war will take priority, such is the critical nature of Russia’s SSN and SSBN fleets that any prospective cuts will likely be felt by other services before resting on Moscow’s key strategic effectors. Fleet inventory information held by GlobalData indicates the Russian Navy maintains a sizeable nuclear submarine fleet, including one Losharik-class SSN, up to four Yasen-class SSN and seven Borei-class SSBNs, which were introduced in 2003, 2013 and from 2013, respectively. It also maintains up to nine Akula-class SSNs, six Oscar-II-class SSNs, and two Sierra-II-class SSNs from the 1980s. In terms of ongoing and future procurement, the
Yasen-class SSNs are slowly being introduced into service in replacement of other ageing classes, with up to 12 submarines planned. Similarly, up to 14 Borei- class SSBNs are also due to be acquired.
US
For the US, long since losing quantitative parity with China’s PLAN in terms of surface combatants, the subsurface represents one domain where it still maintains an advantage over the newest claimant to its position atop the global naval podium. Clearly, the
26
Submarine spending in $bn (2024–34) 213.9 52.8 36.6 35.5 31.6
gargantuan nature of the US defence budget enables spending on a scale that few other countries, if any, can match. Analysis indicates that the US defence budget grew by 10.7% in 2023 to $818.8bn, up from $739.5bn in 2022. The National Defense Authorization ACT (NDAA) for 2024 stipulated an expected defence budget jump of 2.8% to $841.4bn in 2024, figures that excluded spending by the Department of Energy and Atomic Energy Defense Activities from the NDAA total spend. By 2028, the total defence budget is forecast to reach $931.6bn, a positive CAGR from 2024–28 of 2.6%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s desire to seize the western Pacific from the US means Washington is leaning into its strategic SSN and SSBN capabilities, with the latter also part of a wider recapitalisation of the country’s nuclear triad. All told, Washington is forecast to spend $213.9bn on nuclear submarine acquisition over the next decade.
The US Navy operates around 24 of the older Los Angeles-class SSNs, a design that first entered service in the 1970s, with 62 boats eventually built, and three remaining Seawolf-class submarines, which were intended to replace the aforementioned Los Angeles class. The newest type of SSN in US Navy service, the Virginia class, was first commissioned in 2024, with 23 boats currently operational and up to 66 planned over the lifetime of the programme. In terms of SSBNs, the US operates 14 Ohio-class submarines, which carry the US Navy’s nuclear deterrent, as well as four converted Ohio SSBNs armed with cruise missiles and given the SSGN designation. The replacement Columbia-class SSBN programme is currently planned to produce 12 new ballistic missile submarines, with the first in class projected to enter service in the 2031 time frame.
Final table
The final table of the five countries with the largest spend on nuclear-powered submarines over the coming decade has shown a domination of states with a Pacific interest, although the comparatively short list of SSN or SSN and SSBN operators is not lengthy, with just the UK and France to add. Of the final standing, two notable points stand out: the US is going to spend more on its nuclear submarine fleet over the next ten years than the next four countries combined, a clear indication of the advantage that the US Navy maintains in subsurface warfare. The second point is that while China are Russia are the pacing threats that the US is measuring itself against, Australia will spend more on the trilateral AUKUS submarine programme, firstly acquiring US Navy Virginia SSNs and subsequently building a new fleet of AUKUS-SSNs with assistance from the UK, than any of the next three countries. By some margin, Australia’s SSNs will be among the most expensive individual submarines ever acquired by a country, which can only be attributed to the cost of entering the US/UK naval nuclear propulsion club. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
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