Command & control
Nuclear-powered submarines, particularly SSBNs, are central to a nation’s command and control of nuclear deterrence. Richard Thomas examines the top fi ve nuclear submarine spending countries.
Deterrence capabilities A
t the top of the naval tree sit the countries able to design, build and operate nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), capabilities so advanced as to render virtually all other forms of naval vessel as a friendly sensor node if ally, or prospective target if enemy. Further still, at the most extreme end, are the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), whose job it is to patrol silent loops in deep oceans, containing weapons so final that their use is all-but unthinkable. These SSN and SSBN are immense programmes, utilising cutting-edge technologies and the very latest manufacturing techniques to provide platforms of strategic effect. However, they are also among the costliest defence procurement efforts to undertake, with spending running into the tens of billions of dollars, spanning not just years, but decades. According to GlobalData’s Global Submarine Market Forecast 2024–34 report, the global submarine market, valued at $37.3bn in 2024, was projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% over the forecast period. The market was expected to reach $57.5bn by 2034 and cumulatively value $504.6bn over the forecast period. Of this, the SSN segment was forecast to account for 48.9% of the market, followed by the SSBN segment with 30.7% share. Put another way, 79.6% of spending on submarine programmes is heading to the development of SSN and SSBNs. Among geographic segments, North America is projected to dominate the sector with a share of 44.1%, followed by Asia-Pacific and Europe with shares of 29.4% and 22.3% respectively. Breaking down spending by country, and five emerge as the projected leaders in spending on nuclear-powered submarines over the next decade, all of which are wholly or partially located in the Indo-Pacific regions.
Australia
A newcomer to the naval nuclear submarine sector, Australia has embarked on a twin-pronged plan to develop an SSN capability for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) through the AUKUS security initiative, with huge assistance from the US and the UK. Pillar 1 of the AUKUS framework culminates with the sale of Virginia- class submarines from the US to Australia in the early 2030s, with the RAN operating up to three Virginia-class SSNs, which are likely to be in service for at least ten years, and a further two Virginia class being held on option. Australia will then replace the Virginia-class submarines with the SSN-AUKUS design, a joint programme with the UK that will deliver a next- generation SSN to replace the Astute and Virginia classes in service. The UK will deliver its own first SSN- AUKUS in the late 2030s, with the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia delivered forecast for the early 2040s. A key line in the March 2024 statement from the AUKUS countries revealed that the SSN-AUKUS was being “trilaterally” developed, based on the UK SSNR Astute replacement design, but will incorporate “technology from all three nations”, including “cutting edge United States submarine technologies”. It is not clear what “cutting edge US technologies” are referred to, although it could include strike elements such as the vertical launch system (VLS) based on the Virginia Payload Module developed for the US Navy’s Virginia-class SSNs to provide the type with additional firepower. In addition, it is possible that a common torpedo could be utilised by the US, UK and Australia, with US and UK submarine currently operating the Mk48 and Spearfish heavyweight torpedo respectively. Other areas of commonality that could be derived from US technology include common and
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