Command & control
Submarine spending (in USD millions) Country 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Australia China India
Russia US
Source: GlobalData
control systems, sonar and other intelligence-gathering sensors. GlobalData analysis shows that Australian spending on AUKUS, which has already seen multi- billion-dollar investment into the UK and US defence industries, will rise from nearly $3.6bn in 2024 to just short of $6.4bn by 2034. All told, Canberra will commit $52.8bn in SSN acquisition over the coming decade.
China China’s defence spending is reshaping global security with Beijing set on creating a multi-polar world order, balancing the previous domination of the US over the last generation. According to analysis, the PLAN has the largest navy in the world. The country’s defence expenditure saw a CAGR of 7.5% during 2019–23, standing at $230.3bn in 2023, and was forecast to register a CAGR of 6.6% to value $323.7bn in 2028. The Chinese Department of National Defence is also expected to spend $1.4trn over 2024–28 on the procurement of military hardware and the modernisation of its armed forces. Of this, more than $36.6bn will be dedicated to SSN and SSBN acquisition, with an annual spend in 2034 forecast to more than $4.3bn, from $2.6bn in 2024. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (the aforementioned PLAN) was a prolific operator of diesel electric submarines, but since the turn of the millennium has sought to further develop its nuclear propulsion capabilities, with the introduction of two Type-093 SSNs between 2006–07 and four Type- 093A variants from 2012–17. The PLAN also operates SSBNs, bringing four Type-094 into service between 2007–21 and two Type-094A in 2020. The PLAN also has a single 1980s-era Type-092 SSBN in its inventory. China is also working on the new Type-096 class of SSBNs, with two boats under construction, with many more likely planned as part of a general shift to nuclear propulsion for its subsurface fleet. In addition, an unknown number of boats under the Type-095 SSN design are also in development, with Bohai Shipyard (China Shipbuilding Industry) the most likely candidate for the manufacturing stage.
India
In late-2024, in a significant move towards bolstering maritime security, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved the indigenous construction of two Project 75-Alpha nuclear attack submarines
(SSNs), itself part of a much wider spending pattern on subsurface capabilities. The procurement of indigenous nuclear-powered submarines capable of undertaking hunter-killer operations positions the Indian Navy as a formidable force capable of conducting anti-submarine warfare in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), stated GlobalData at the time.
Analysis reveals that India will spend about $31.6bn on procuring various types of submarines over the next decade. Of this, 30.5% will be directed towards the procurement of Project 75-Alpha SSNs during the same period, with India is expected to acquire a total of six SSNs under this programme at an estimated value of $17bn. Udayini Aakunoor, defence analyst at GlobalData, commented: “The acquisition of SSNs is a strategic move by India to modernise its navy and tackle regional security challenges. To be built at the Ship Building Centre located in Vishakhapatnam with participation from the domestic private sector, they are expected to boost the country’s autonomy in complex naval shipbuilding.” With their unlimited underwater endurance and offensive power, the SSNs will enable India to project power in the Indo-Pacific region while supporting self- reliant advancements in critical defence technologies. These SSNs, coupled with the Indian Navy’s P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, would enhance the service’s ability to detect and track Chinese submarines operating in the IOR, GlobalData suggested. Aakunoor concluded: “India will also likely use these Project 75-Alpha SSNs to protect its in-service Arihant-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, which serves as the sea- based leg of the country’s nuclear triad. “This, in turn, will enhance India’s second-strike capability as the survivability of its fleet of Arihant-class SSBNs will increase significantly owing to the protection provided by the Project 75-Alpha SSNs.”
Russia
Russia is a leading operator of nuclear-powered submarines, with experience charting back decades to the very early stages of the Cold War. More so than its surface fleet, the Russian Navy’s submarine force is extremely capable, with considerable design expertise in the country’s industrial base. However, determining a proportion of spend on nuclear submarines, relative to overall defence expenditure is a complex proposition in
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com 25
2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
2034
3,582 3,586 3,590 3,594 3,613 3,622 6,183 6,207 6,216 6,239 6,380 2,607 2,802 3,040 3,081 3,174 3,291 3,396 3,603 3,664 3,710 4,316 2,320 2,533 3,675 2,457 2,526 2,639 2,741 2,873 2,958 3,350 3,560 2,701 2,893 2,973 3,334 3,458 3,106 3,235 3,405 2,958 3,487 3,942 16,957 18,037 18,522 18,607 18,137 18,898 18,898 19,643 19,876 22,592 23,730
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