Regional focus


doubly true when you consider the Swedish island of Gotland, prominently located in the Baltic Sea and acting like a “very big” aircraft carrier for potential operations in the region.


Beyond the sweep of geopolitics, both Sweden and Finland bring more practical advantages to the alliance. Consider, for instance, the region’s defence industry, with conglomerates like Saab already receiving 58% of sales revenue from exports overseas. Finland offers similar expertise in technologies as varied as armoured vehicles and turreted mortars, with integration into Nato made easier by the fact that interoperability has been a shared principle for years. And if both countries have gradually shaken off their mantle of neutrality, their self-sufficient histories could prove useful too. “The Finnish concept of comprehensive security – our guideline for security and preparedness activities in different sectors of society – aims to safeguard the vital functions of society through cooperation between authorities, business operators, organisations and citizens,” says Koivula, adding that a robust civil society is helpful in combatting disinformation, as well as the “hybrid influence” epitomised by the ‘little green men’ that appeared in Crimea during Russia’s 2014 invasion. Not, of course, that Finland and Sweden are only joining Nato for what they can offer. Vanhanen, for his part, highlights the “nuclear umbrella” – a reasonable point when the US has over 5,000 such weapons, even as France and the UK operate submarine-based deterrents of their own. There are more practical benefits of membership, too. For Koivula, air support in the event of a Russian attack is one advantage here, as is Nato ability to keep Baltic supply lines open. Given their traditionally close relationship, meanwhile, Edström equally stresses the ways in which Finland and Sweden can support each other under the wider Nato banner, notably in the “high north” near the Arctic Circle. There’s evidence, in fact, that this is already happening. In June 2023, 6,500 Finnish troops hosted exercises with roughly 1,000 soldiers from the


UK, Norway, Sweden and the US. Significantly, the training session happened at Rovajarvi – a military site just two hours from the Russian frontier.


Making things Baltic With Russia’s 2022 invasion a shock to even the most hardened of military analysts, it’d be foolish to predict the future of European geopolitics. Yet, speak to the experts and they seem buoyant about what Nato membership can offer both Sweden and Finland – and what they can offer Nato in turn. Koivula, for instance, predicts a strengthening of bilateral relations between Finland and the US, even as Baltic and Nordic militaries become a “more prolific grouping within Nato” given the rising Russian threat. Vanhanen makes a similar point. “I think Finland will be [working to ensure] that Nato will be able to have functioning command structures in Northern Europe,” he says, “that the division of tasks and labour in terms of security and defence among Nordic countries, the Baltic countries, Poland and Germany is fair and serves a clear purpose.” You’d imagine that prior experience should flatten these concerns. For as the long-standing focus on interoperability implies – and Edström confirms – both Finland and Sweden were already well on the way to becoming honorary Nato members. “When it comes to the tactical level,” he says, “interoperability is already there, and the way we are running tactical operations. On a unit level, we are very much already interoperable. So that will not change that much.” Having said that, Edström does emphasise that some things will need to be tweaked. One area is connectivity. Another is operational planning: Sweden may have been an Enhanced Opportunity Partner, but that hardly meant they were in the room when Nato campaigns were being organised. Yet, if past experience can be relied on, it seems clear that both new members should fit neatly into the alliance they spurned for so long, even as Ukraine’s own war enters its third long winter. ●


2021


Opinion polls in Finland and Sweden show low support for joining Nato.


24 February 2022


Russia invades Ukraine.


May 2022


Finland and Sweden apply to join Nato.


November 2022


Opinion polls now show widespread support within Sweden and Finland over joining Nato.


4 April 2023


Finland becomes 31st member of Nato.


June 2023


6,500 Finnish troops hosted exercises with roughly 1,000 soldiers from the UK, Norway, Sweden and the US just two hours from the Russian border.


October 2023


Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan submits bill approving Swedish membership to Nato to parliament, one of the final hurdles blocking Sweden.


Both Sweden’s and Finland’s defence forces have a decades-long history of collaboration with Nato.


Defence & Security Systems International / www.defence-and-security.com 25


Swedish Army


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