Regional focus
always remote for as long as the Iron Curtain existed. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, however, everything changed. Pax Americana was the order of the day – and the Nordic countries reacted in kind.
With both Finland and Sweden enjoying a presence in the Baltic Sea, Nato will have further strategic depth against Russia.
The Winter War, which the Soviet Union waged against Finland from November 1939, culminated in the humbling of an imperial power. And now, with another Russian neighbour reduced to ashes, the Nordic country must reflect on its security once more. So it was that in April 2023, Finland abandoned decades of neutrality and became the 31st member of Nato. Further west, along the Baltic Sea, Swedish politicians soon hope to achieve the same goal. Altogether, it’s the biggest expansion of Nato since 2009 – and promises to have dramatic consequences, everywhere from geography to defence procurement, for both the new arrivals and the alliance as a whole. All the same, this expansion has hardly come from nowhere. Since the end of the Cold War, after all, both Sweden and Finland have gradually increased their military collaboration with other like-minded democracies. Though proper Nato membership is certainly significant, in other words, it’s perhaps slightly less revolutionary than what the press releases imply.
830 miles
The length of Finland’s border with Russia.
European Commission 24
The Finn’s red line As the experience of the Winter War so vividly evokes, Nordic countries have long had to be wary of the threat to the east. But for much of the 20th century, Finland and Sweden dealt with that threat through subtle diplomacy and rugged isolation. “While friendly relations with the Soviet Union were emphasised in official governmental expressions for decades,” explains Dr Tommi Koivula of the Finnish National Defence University, “militarily, Finland sought to prepare against a possible attack by the one and only potentially hostile country: the Soviet Union.” Aloof from the overtures of both Nato and the
Warsaw Pact, in short, Finland instead defended its borders through massive conscription, encompassing upwards of 700,000 men by the 1970s. Sweden, for its part, remained somewhat closer to the US, tolerating the presence of American nuclear submarines off its waters. Even so, the prospect of joining Nato was
“The threat of major wars in Europe is now less acute,” says Henri Vanhanen from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, meaning that both Sweden and Finland could pursue their geopolitical interests more explicitly. In the first place, that meant joining the European Union, something both countries did in 1995. From there, Helsinki and Stockholm became more involved in humanitarian missions abroad, notably in hotspots like Kosovo. That was shadowed by closer collaboration with Nato itself. As Lieutenant General Carl-Johan Edström, head of joint operations at the Swedish Armed Forces explains, his country has been an ‘Enhanced Opportunity Partner’ with Nato since 2014.
Even so, opinion polls as late as 2021 showed that neither Swedes nor Finns seemed keen on becoming fully-fledged Nato members – hardly surprising when so-called ‘armed neutrality’ had served them well for so long. Yet, though Sweden abandoned military entanglements as far back as 1815, Russia’s dramatic invasion of Ukraine exploded public perceptions. According to one November 2022 survey, to give one example, 78% of Finns were positive about Nato membership, with over half happy to host alliance bases on Finnish soil. Clearly, much of this shift can be explained by the ferocity of Putin’s actions, as well as by the collective security Nato membership offers. But perhaps more important are the specific threats voiced by Russia towards its neighbours. In particular, Edström highlights President Putin’s comments, made just a few months before his attack on Ukraine, that “small countries outside of Russia” shouldn’t be able to decide if they want to join Nato. That’s echoed, the officer continues, by other worries, from cyberattacks to long-range weapons.
Swede on
Finland is now an official Nato member. Sweden has lagged behind somewhat: Turkey, another Nato ally, is proving slow to approve Stockholm’s application because the country harbours Kurdish militants, which Ankara considers terrorists. But the question remains: once both countries do officially join the alliance, what will they contribute? Perhaps the easiest way to understand things here is geographically. “If you look at the location, it’s both a Nordic and a Baltic country,” says Vanhanen. Fair enough. Boasting a direct border with Russia 830 miles long, Finnish membership certainly helps Nato strategists in Brussels, not least given the country’s expertise in Arctic warfare. Edström, for his part, argues that both new members bolster Nato’s “operational depth” in other ways. That’s
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
US Navy
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