News in numbers
Pharma growth and innovation Consensus expectations for Big Pharma revenue growth (%)
2022a Eli Lilly & Co.*
Novo Nordisk A/S* Regeneron
Pharmaceuticals Inc. AstraZeneca PLC
Abbvie Inc. Sanofi Roche Holding AG Johnson & Johnson Merck & Co. Inc. GSK PLC Gilead Sciencies Inc. 2023a 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
Five-year average
(2025–2029) 1 20 33 29 21 14 13 10 10 17.1 26 31 23 21 17 8 8 10 1 13.0 (24) 8 8 4 7 11 6 8 4 7.1 19 3 3 16 7 6 6 5 9 4 6.6 (6) 3 6 7 6 6 5 2 6.0 14 0 4 8 8 4 5 3 7 5.4 7 7 (7) 4 6 4 4 4 4 0 4.6 (10) 4 3 4 3 5 3 6 3.5 22 1 6 5 6 6 2 (4) (14) 0 3 3 4 6 4 1 0 (2) 0 3.1 3.1 (1) 5 0 3 4 4 4 3 3.0 Amgen Inc. 1 7 18 4 2 2 1 5 4 2.6
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.
Novartis AG Biogen Inc. Pfizer Inc. 12 (2) (7) 23 12 6 6 0 1 1 3 3 2.2 (10) (3) 11 4 1 1 3 0 (3) (2) 1.8 (2) 1 3 2 2 1 1.3 (42) 8 0 0 (1)
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. 0 (2) 5 (2)
Average
Average (excluding obesity companies)
(5) (6) 1 (7) (4) (5) 1 (1) (1.8) (3.8) 4.4 0.3 9.1 6.1 5.2 4.5 3.2 3.1 2.4 4.4 3.2 (3.1) 6.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 3.0
Note: Revenue growth was negative for many companies in 2023 due to a decline in COVID-19 products (Pfizer), divestitures (Johnson & Johnson) and loss of exclusivity of major products (Abbvie and Bristol- Myers). The consensus estimates may have different assumptions than S&P Global Ratings including in terms of impact of Medicare price negotiation and inclusion of not-yet-closed or future acquisitions. *Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are experiencing outsized revenue growth due to their leadership in obesity drugs. a--Actual. e--Estimate. Sources: CapitalIQ estimates and S&P Global Ratings. (As of 22 Jan 2025).
Source:
www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250203-pharmaceutical-industry-2025-credit-outlook-is-stable-as-healthy-revenue-growth-mitigates-pressures-13394024 30%
The estimated percentage of new drugs that will be discovered using AI in 2025 – a win for biopharma companies and patients alike. Source:
www.alpha-sense.com/blog/trends
8 25–50% $1.94bn
The percentage of drug discovery timelines and costs in preclinical stages that AI has been shown to reduce.
The calculated size of the
global AI market in 2025.
Source: Precedence Research World Pharmaceutical Frontiers /
www.worldpharmaceuticals.net
Net Vector; Irina Strelnikova; M-vector/
Shutterstock.com
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