20 | Sector Market Update: International Softwood Conference
◄ “US inflation may be peaking around 8%, but in Europe, where it’s around 10%, we could see further rises,” said Mr Freij. Banks’ responses in hiking interest rates will force a change in business behaviour, he said.
Top: Canada has 100 mass timber buildings in the education sector alone,
including Brock Commons Tallwood House at the University of British Columbia
Above: Morten Bergsten said “it’s time to get back to work”
“CEOs under 40 have never experienced such high rates, always assuming they would be lower tomorrow. Now it’s hasta la vista negative rates.” Danske Bank predicts global recession in 2023, but Mr Freij maintained the softwood sector could ensure a softer landing than in earlier downturns . “After the home improvement boom and high prices of the last two years, the industry can afford to put brakes on production so the market bottom is higher than in previous recessions,” he said “It’s in your hands.” Addressing the European softwood market, ETTF softwood chairman Morten Bergsten said, after a strong first few months, 2022 forecasts had been revised downwards. “European imports were predicted down 4% this year, while consumption in Europe and
TTJ | November/December 2022 |
www.ttjonline.com
America was forecast to increase 2.3%,” he said. “Now European imports are expected to decrease 8% while that consumption figure contracts 6.5%.”
of Russian and Belarusian timber from the EU through embargoes could mitigate oversupply and help stabilise the market.” EOS president Herbert Jöbstl said European sawmills had not experienced such a swift market reversal, including price contraction, for years.
With China and the US (where EU imports rose 13% in the first five months of 2022) continuing to slow, business for the European softwood sector would be increasingly challenging. “We’ve had two happy-go-lucky years, now it’s time to get back to work,” said Mr Bergsten. “But the exclusion of 8 million m3
“The industry came strongly out of pandemic,” he said. “But the picture has changed rapidly. War in Ukraine and inflation have depressed confidence including in construction. EU building output rose 4.9% in 2021, but is forecast up just 1% in 2022, with 0.5% growth in 2023.”
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